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Mesoscale Discussion 619
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0523 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH...NRN/CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165...166...

   VALID 112223Z - 120000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   165...166...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A PREDOMINANT
   RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED TSTMS
   FROM SWRN OH TO NRN KY.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF THE WELL-DEFINED QLCS ACROSS CNTRL
   OH...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED FROM SWRN OH INTO NRN
   KY ALONG THE PRIMARY WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.
   THE RIBBON OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
   BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY NARROW WITH NRN EXTENT AS RECOVERY TIME IS
   LIMITED BEHIND THE LEAD QLCS. IN ADDITION...PROBABLE POOR MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SHOULD CURTAIL UPDRAFT STRENGTH. BUT WITH DEEP SHEAR
   COMPARATIVELY STRONGER ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT VERSUS THE LEAD QLCS
   WITH KLVX VWP DATA SAMPLING 0-6 KM VALUES AROUND 45 KT...THE
   POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY ACROSS
   FAR NRN KY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. BEHIND THIS
   ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   38498559 39008467 39868378 40058315 39678289 38878315
               38308350 37938375 37688408 37478469 37538528 37688562
               37868587 38498559 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2015
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