Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 619
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 619 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS BIG COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173...

   VALID 120835Z - 121000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONGER STORMS MAY MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...A MODEST /30-40 KT AT 850 MB/ SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   EXTENDING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TOWARD THE SOUTH PLAINS IS
   SUPPORTING RENEWED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY.  THIS IS GENERALLY OCCURRING
   ABOVE A RESIDUAL CONGLOMERATE SURFACE COLD POOL GENERATED BY EARLIER
   CONVECTION...BUT NEWER STORMS NORTHWEST/WEST NORTHWEST OF ABILENE
   ARE OCCURRING ALONG/ABOVE A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  

   25 KT WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUING
   GENERAL EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS. 
   DESPITE THE ELEVATED NATURE OF EVEN THIS ACTIVITY...THE INFLOW OF
   MOIST AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY LARGE CAPE MAY CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT STORMS OCCASIONALLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...AND
   PERHAPS LOCALIZED POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.  THIS THREAT
   MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY 10-11Z...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS
   AND/OR IS OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT.

   ..KERR.. 05/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32230031 32670129 33240039 32449787 31469784 31759933
               32230031 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 12, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities