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Mesoscale Discussion 620
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...NRN WV...FAR WRN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165...167...

   VALID 112326Z - 120030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   165...167...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY A EWD-MOVING QLCS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY
   THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z. PROBABILITY OF DOWNSTREAM SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS 50 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...QLCS EXTENDED FROM LAKE COUNTY OH TO WIRT COUNTY WV AS
   OF 2310Z. MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S/40S-KT HAVE OCCURRED WITH
   THIS LINE...WITH A PEAK GUST TO 49 KT IN KCAK AT 2254Z. FORWARD
   SPEED OF THE QLCS HAS BEEN AT AROUND 40-45 KT WHICH WOULD TAKE THE
   QLCS TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW 167 NEAR 01Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS
   RATHER WARM WITH UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES. STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND RISK IN
   THE NEAR-TERM. BUT WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
   CONVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPSTREAM 700-MB SWLY JET OVER THE
   MIDWEST...THE LONGEVITY OF THE DAMAGING WIND RISK IS UNCERTAIN AFTER
   SUNSET.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42228056 42667922 42547873 42127844 41217848 40227874
               39167952 38688043 38658097 39238139 40068126 40698101
               41358100 41848072 42228056 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2015
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