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Mesoscale Discussion 620
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0910 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...NW AL...FAR SW KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121410Z - 121545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WESTERN
   TN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE SHOULD STORM INTENSITY INCREASE.

   DISCUSSION...AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCS WILL CONTINUE
   TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER/WRN TN INTO THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION IS STILL EVIDENT PER
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WERE
   EVIDENT SOUTH OF A W-E SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM FAR NE AR INTO NW
   TN...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH CONTINUED
   HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTION. INCREASED EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT
   DUE IN PART TO THE MCV WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION
   AND STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE. GROUND TRUTH HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS
   MORNING...WHICH SUPPORTS INHIBITION PREVENTING STRONGER GUSTS FROM
   CURRENTLY REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE SHOULD INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
   OCCUR.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35549081 36099087 36448993 36718847 36738819 36598780
               36098737 35608711 35118701 34938706 34798721 34608775
               34408921 34418966 34569044 34829067 35159080 35549081 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2016
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