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Mesoscale Discussion 620
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY INTO WRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192012Z - 192215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY FROM SERN
   WY INTO WRN NEB AND SRN SD...WITH PERHAPS A GRADUALLY INCREASING
   HAIL THREAT INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ALSO LIKELY. GIVEN
   EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS IS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING WITH INITIAL
   CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER SERN WY NEAR THE TAIL END OF
   THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE LOW WITH DEWPOINTS
   ONLY IN THE 40S F. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXIST IN THIS
   REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX.

   WITH CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS OVER SERN WY SHOULD BECOME BETTER
   ESTABLISHED WITH A LONG-LIVED CELL OR TWO EMERGING AND TRAVELING EWD
   INTO WRN NEB. THE LONG HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES
   TOGETHER WITH LOW MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD FAVOR SMALL HAIL
   INITIALLY...WITH INCREASING SIZES TO AROUND 1.00 INCH DIAMETER AS
   CELLS ENCOUNTER GREATER MOISTURE TO THE E.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 05/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42349986 41730047 41230170 41110260 41120367 41250445
               41540488 42020510 42840487 43340240 43690078 43469991
               42839953 42349986 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2014
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