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Mesoscale Discussion 621
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192209Z - 200015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
   THE WEST OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
   THE WEST OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG /PER
   MODIFIED 21 UTC KRBL RAP SOUNDING/ AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AT OR
   BELOW 20 KTS/. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MULTI-CELLS TIED TO...OR JUST
   DOWNSTREAM OF...THE TERRAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM MODE.

   GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST...SMALL HAIL /BRIEFLY APPROACHING 1
   INCH/ AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS /GENERALLY LESS THEN 60 MPH/ CAN BE
   EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. THE BRIEF/ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY
   SEVERE-CRITERIA EVENT SUGGESTS A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   ..MARSH/EDWARDS.. 05/19/2014


   ATTN...WFO...STO...

   LAT...LON   40322278 40462270 40592226 40232195 39822176 39302164
               39022209 39372255 39972273 40322278 

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Page last modified: May 20, 2014
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