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Mesoscale Discussion 621
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165...166...

   VALID 120027Z - 120200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   165...166...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DESPITE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG A
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE
   AND THE OVERALL RISK REMAINS MINIMAL. REPLACEMENT WW/S ARE NOT
   ANTICIPATED BEYOND THE 02Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXISTS
   ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFTS FROM THE COLUMBUS AREA TO THE KY/TN
   BORDER IN CNTRL KY. MODIFIED 00Z ILN/BNA RAOBS SUGGESTS MLCAPE IS
   MEAGER AOB 500 J/KG WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP SHEAR
   REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER...WITH 0-6 KM VALUES AROUND 40 KT. BUT
   SURFACE WINDS HAVE LARGELY VEERED ACROSS CNTRL KY WITH DEW POINTS
   DROPPING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LACKING AND
   WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION...ACTIVITY
   SEEMS UNLIKELY TO GREATLY INTENSIFY.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   39588335 40248255 40078227 39388247 38678276 37068454
               36658559 36928584 37318572 38298465 39588335 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2015
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