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Mesoscale Discussion 621
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE AR...NE LA...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121933Z - 122100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PATS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED CLOSELY.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD
   FRONT FROM SOUTHERN AR INTO W-CNTRL MS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
   AND STRONG HEATING INTO THE 80S HAS RESULTED IN WEAK TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...AROUND 25
   KT...BUT FORECAST TO IMPROVE SOME AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
   SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. MODERATE DCAPE AND
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
   IN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...CONVECTIVE MODE WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN MESSY WITH PULSE-LIKE CLUSTERS MOST LIKELY.
   HOWEVER...SHOULD ANY APPRECIABLE COLD POOL DEVELOP...FURTHER
   ORGANIZATION INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS AND ASSOCIATED
   INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. MODEST
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR WILL GENERALLY LIMIT LARGE HAIL
   POTENTIAL...BUT SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST
   UPDRAFTS. A WATCH IS NOT IMMEDIATELY EXPECTED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED CLOSELY.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32929326 33539288 33849200 34298972 34348866 33518833
               32448852 31678949 31419062 31469202 31609271 31759293
               32139327 32659336 32929326 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2016
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