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Mesoscale Discussion 622
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 200044Z - 200145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW BY 0130Z.

   DISCUSSION...AFTER STRUGGLING MUCH OF THE AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF
   STRONG SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY...A COUPLE STG/SVR TSTMS HAVE
   MANAGED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS FAR SERN WY AND THE ADJACENT
   NEB PANHANDLE. MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF A SWD-SAGGING BOUNDARY
   IS LIKELY AIDING THE WRN-MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED
   INSOLATION HAS RESULTED IN AROUND 750 - 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE
   PRESENCE OF 60 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
   IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. AN ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL REPORT
   IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   AT PRESENT...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THESE TSTMS WILL PERSIST/MOVE E
   TOWARDS BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...A SCENARIO DEPICTED BY RECENT
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE. IT DOES SEEM
   REASONABLE...HOWEVER...FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE AS FAR EAST AS KOGA
   THRU THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE BY 0130Z.

   ..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 05/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40970223 41100348 41260452 41550484 41990474 42210439
               42310359 42350301 42330248 42160180 41960162 41290157
               41000176 40970223 

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Page last modified: May 20, 2014
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