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Mesoscale Discussion 622
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0910 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...NWRN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168...

   VALID 120210Z - 120345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 168
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS THROUGH 04Z. IF
   OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO THE QLCS CONTINUES...AN ADDITIONAL WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM BUT LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...NEARLY CONTIGUOUS PORTION OF A QLCS FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
   NY TO ELK COUNTY PA WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
   THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...MEASURED SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS WITH THE LINE HAVE BEEN WEAKENING INTO THE 25-40 KT RANGE
   SINCE 01Z. WITH THE 00Z KBUF RAOB SAMPLING WEAKER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES COMPARED TO KPIT...AND DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 02Z
   HAVING COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S...FURTHER BOUNDARY
   LAYER STABILIZATION SUGGESTS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE LINE HAS
   PROBABLY PEAKED.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   43637830 43637685 43607633 43157647 42207732 41667812
               41737869 41907879 43637830 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2015
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