MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NM AND TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205...
   
   VALID 290046Z - 290245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205
   CONTINUES.
   
   CONTINUE WW.  VIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE
   ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
   DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF DRYLINE...EVEN AS EARLIEST TSTMS
   MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND WEAKEN.  AS OF 00Z...DRYLINE WAS
   ANALYZED NEAR THE LINE LVS...20 E CQC...SRR...GDP...10 E
   MRF...LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   SFC-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
   02Z...WITH DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SUPPORTING
   NARROW/MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
   MAINLY OVER AND W OF PECOS RIVER.  ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING --
   LIKELY COINCIDING WITH ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY --
   DEMARCATES ERN EDGE OF MOST BUOYANT AIR FROM CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL
   COUNTY SWD TO NEAR A ROW...CNM...PEQ LINE.  THIS QUASISTATIONARY
   BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR TIGHT LOW LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS CROSSING IT.  WITH
   TIME...PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS WW
   AREA...EITHER AS NOCTURNAL CONTINUATION OF ONGOING/DIURNALLY-DRIVEN 
   ACTIVITY OR WITHIN WRN LIMB OF INITIALLY SEPARATE WAA/LLJ REGIME
   DESCRIBED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 621.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/29/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   30050256 30650344 30330375 32470459 33550495 35460465
               35770452 35810434 35850341 35690301 32080303 32070281
               31300274 31210244 31070237 30980200 30870185 30620177
               30640214 30590212 30590237 30260236 30260256 30050256