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Mesoscale Discussion 622
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN VA...ERN NC...AND FAR ERN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131730Z - 131930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...POSING MAINLY A STRONG TO LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GREAT
   LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD THIS
   AFTERNOON...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ONGOING
   PRECIPITATION HAS SLOWED DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS SERN VA INTO ERN
   NC...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS
   OF 17Z. FURTHER S...LESS CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE ROBUST SFC
   HEATING...AND INSTABILITY IS CORRESPONDINGLY STRONGER WITH SWD
   EXTENT ACROSS THE MCD REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
   THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
   AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO OCCUR
   ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS COASTAL NC/SC. WITH A MODEST
   INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   APPROACHES THE REGION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT MAY POSE A RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WHILE WW ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
   LIKELY...SOME PORTION OF THE MCD AREA MAY REQUIRE A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DEPENDING ON
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 05/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   37107580 36337564 35697535 35187539 34467649 34327728
               33717794 33707840 33377889 33047913 32567983 32428027
               32738055 33618036 34867873 35937812 36927713 37237629
               37107580 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2016
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