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Mesoscale Discussion 623
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121649Z - 121915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. WHILE AN
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
   WEAKENING FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...AS
   WELL AS ALONG A SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY ADVANCING WWD ACROSS THE FAR SRN
   AND ERN PENINSULA. STRONG HEATING AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SFC
   DEWPOINTS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG
   WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z
   RAOBS. BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE INCREASING TO NEAR
   20F OVER MUCH OF THE MCD AREA AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS AWAY FROM CONVECTION. EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN DOWNDRAFTS IN
   THIS SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS -- ESPECIALLY WHERE COLD POOLS LOCALLY
   AMALGAMATE. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR WILL
   PREVENT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. ANY ORGANIZATION TO
   CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD BE TRANSIENT AND LIMITED TO FORCING
   ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT MAY BECOME AUGMENTED BY
   CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS.

   ..CONIGLIO/COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   28888324 29188321 29428317 29648274 30158192 30298154
               29838138 29288120 28698099 28348089 28018076 27798070
               27428052 26848031 26408021 25738049 25488096 25648133
               26018195 27018258 28578314 28888324 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2015
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