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Mesoscale Discussion 623
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS...NRN MO...SRN IA...FAR WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131752Z - 131945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY
   MID-AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN IA THROUGH EASTERN KS. DAMAGING WIND AND
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AROUND 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE
   VICINITY OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
   NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS EARLY CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IA
   AND NE KS.

   OTHERWISE...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP
   THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT FROM
   SRN IA INTO CNTRL/ERN KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE
   UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH MORE.
   DESPITE POOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   GREATER THAN 7.0 DEG C/KM AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 18Z...VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CU FIELD BUBBLING BENEATH RAPIDLY ERODING
   CAP ACROSS CNTRL INTO NE KS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MORE
   WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SOME
   BACKING FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE BUT A QUICK PROGRESSION TOWARD BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IS
   EXPECTED. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD /DCAPE AROUND
   1000-1500 J PER KG/ RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT OF DOWNDRAFTS AND
   FAVORING COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
   CONCERN. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ALSO
   ALLOW FOR SOME LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT OR
   WITH ANY CELLS THAT REMAIN MORE ISOLATED. THE THREAT WILL SPREAD
   EASTWARD INTO NRN MO/WRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER
   IMPULSE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A WATCH WILL
   LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA AROUND 19Z.

   ..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 05/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   DDC...

   LAT...LON   40729492 41319278 41329171 41189084 40799052 40399066
               39699133 39109253 38449402 37899546 37709615 37609712
               37629731 37709797 38099855 38349868 38529860 38899835
               39279784 40109620 40729492 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2016
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