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Mesoscale Discussion 623
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...NERN IL...ERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 202005Z - 202200Z

   CORRECTED FOR WATCH PROB

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
   WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN WI...WITH OTHER
   STORMS FORMING TO THE SW INTO IA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH PLACEMENT.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD OVER SRN
   WI IN THE PLUME OF STEEPER LOWER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
   DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S F. THIS AREA IS NEAR A LOW
   PRESSURE TROUGH...WITH CONVERGENCE BEING ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE.


   MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH
   STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A FAVORABLY LONG HODOGRAPH. ALTHOUGH
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK...THE HODOGRAPH STILL FAVORS A RIGHT MOVING
   SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL.

   SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS CU BEGINNING TO FILL IN SWWD INTO IA WITHIN THE
   AXIS OF DILATATION. CONTINUED HEATING IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
   BREAK THE CAP AND RESULT IN SEVERAL STORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF HAIL.

   THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SIG HAIL POTENTIAL IS WHETHER STORMS
   WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS DESPITE THE RATHER WEAK FORCING AND
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT...OR MORE TOWARD MULTICELLS...IN
   WHICH CASE THE HAIL COULD STILL BE LARGE BUT NO GREATER THAN ABOUT
   GOLF BALL.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 05/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43588734 42878726 42538750 42258850 41988986 41829147
               42099226 42369206 42709080 43268918 43638821 43758788
               43748748 43588734 

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Page last modified: May 20, 2014
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