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Mesoscale Discussion 624
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...POTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...WRN OK...S-CNTRL
   KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131840Z - 132045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
   EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE AROUND
   20Z.

   DISCUSSION...A CUMULUS FIELD WAS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND
   AGITATED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK/S-CNTRL KS. 18Z OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CAPPING HAS MOSTLY ERODED...AND THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
   CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE PREFRONTAL
   TROUGH/WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN
   BETTER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F. AS A RESULT...MLCAPE
   FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WAS ALREADY EVIDENT PER 18Z MESOANALYSIS.
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5+ C
   PER KM/ WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STRONG WIND
   GUSTS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LARGER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS AND DCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. CELLS MAY REMAIN
   SEMI-DISCRETE LONGER THAN THOSE FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS ERN KS
   GIVEN SLIGHTLY BETTER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS AND OUTFLOWS INTERACT. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY
   BE NEEDED AROUND 20Z.

   ..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 05/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34479994 34240038 34190106 34170141 34360190 34810209
               35400199 35940159 37270024 37999941 38159907 38169860
               37979816 37709783 37239789 36539841 35129950 34479994 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2016
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