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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 290637Z - 290800Z
ISOLATED...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE REGION. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
EXTENDING FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY KS TO HARPER COUNTY OK AS OF 0630Z.
PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER DATA COUPLED WITH GOES PW IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG 40-50 KT SLY LLJ WHERE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE FLUX IS OCCURRING ABOVE A SHALLOW...NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG.
EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG LLJ AXIS AS LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THE MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
A FEW INTENSE/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.
..MEAD.. 04/29/2009
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 36829982 37899973 39009949 39869910 39999814 39819755
39379752 37899790 37079815 36739843 36429907 36829982
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