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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 102111Z - 102245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF PA AND WESTERN NY...WITH A DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN PA AS OF 21Z...SCATTERED
RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE ACROSS WESTERN PA...WITH OTHER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NY. WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY /FEW HUNDRED MLCAPE/ EXISTS TO MAINTAIN THESE LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS WESTERN NY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD AND 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET /PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/ VIA AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH.
WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL /GENERALLY
1 INCH OR LESS/ WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A
TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVE INFERENCE WILL LIKELY ABATE SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL BEYOND THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A POST-SUNSET COOLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OTHERWISE LEADING TO A DECREASING INTENSITY
TREND THIS EVENING.
..GUYER/CARBIN.. 05/10/2013
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41828061 42417925 43247794 43107674 41907677 40987779
40577824 40677977 41828061
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