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Mesoscale Discussion 624
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY / WRN NEB PANHANDLE / CO FRONT RANGE
   VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 202008Z - 202115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER SERN WY.  ADDITIONAL ISOLD
   ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CO FRONT RANGE AND PALMER
   DIVIDE VICINITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND
   THREAT WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
   REGIME OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND THIS HAS ACTED TO ADVECT
   APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MID 40S DEWPOINTS/ INTO THE AREAS
   IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER N-CNTRL CO AND SERN
   WY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD BILLOWS OVER E-CNTRL WY INTO THE
   NWRN PORTION OF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF A
   DELAYED YET DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.  FARTHER W TO THE
   IMMEDIATE E OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND EXTENDING SEWD INTO CO...AMPLE
   SURFACE HEATING IS ACTING TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.  RAP
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILE COINCIDENT WITH
   MARGINAL BUOYANCY /500-1000 J PER KG SBCAPE/ WITHIN A STRONGLY
   VEERING AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.  IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE A FEW
   STORMS WILL PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOP OVER SERN WY AND OVER THE CO
   FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  IF A FEW UPDRAFTS
   CAN ORGANIZE AND BECOME SUSTAINED...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND
   GUST THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 05/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   39720518 40910556 41910597 42540640 42990643 43350559
               42960426 42420378 41400367 39510374 39220423 39220467
               39720518 

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Page last modified: May 20, 2014
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