Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 624
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 624 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN VA...NRN/ERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121752Z - 122015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF A LEE TROUGH
   EAST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD
   TO THE EAST OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEAR
   WASHINGTON DC SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CHARLOTTE NC. STRONG HEATING HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. MODERATE WSW/UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH 25-35 KT OF
   DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF
   LINE SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN AND WRN PARTS OF THE MCD AREA.
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...
   THOUGH THE SVR-HAIL RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY THE MODEST MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
   STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND NEAR THE
   LARGEST TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS...WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE ENHANCED BY
   EVAPORATIVELY DRIVEN DOWNDRAFTS IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
   HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A
   WW IS NOT PRESENTLY EXPECTED -- THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..CONIGLIO/COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37607868 37857822 38197735 38067629 37767587 36927546
               35987538 34657700 34837814 35307894 35627975 35938013
               36477991 37327906 37607868 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 12, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities