MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 290637Z - 290800Z
   
   ISOLATED...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS
   MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.  A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
   EXTENDING FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY KS TO HARPER COUNTY OK AS OF 0630Z. 
   PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER DATA COUPLED WITH GOES PW IMAGERY SUGGEST
   THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG 40-50 KT SLY LLJ WHERE
   CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE FLUX IS OCCURRING ABOVE A SHALLOW...NEAR
   SURFACE INVERSION.  THIS MOISTURE INCREASE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF
   1000-1500 J/KG.
   
   EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG LLJ AXIS AS LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
   OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES.  THE MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALONG
   WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   A FEW INTENSE/SUSTAINED STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/29/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   36829982 37899973 39009949 39869910 39999814 39819755
               39379752 37899790 37079815 36739843 36429907 36829982