MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/WESTERN PA AND WESTERN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 102111Z - 102245Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN A
   POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS
   OF PA AND WESTERN NY...WITH A DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND EXPECTED
   THEREAFTER.
   
   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING QUASI-LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN PA AS OF 21Z...SCATTERED
   RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
   LINE ACROSS WESTERN PA...WITH OTHER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/LOW-TOPPED
   SUPERCELLS OCCURRING ACROSS WESTERN NY. WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY /FEW HUNDRED MLCAPE/ EXISTS TO MAINTAIN THESE LOW-TOPPED
   SUPERCELLS IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS WESTERN NY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A
   STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD AND 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET /PER
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/ VIA AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH.
   WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL /GENERALLY
   1 INCH OR LESS/ WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A
   TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVE INFERENCE WILL LIKELY ABATE SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL BEYOND THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A POST-SUNSET COOLING
   OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OTHERWISE LEADING TO A DECREASING INTENSITY
   TREND THIS EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER/CARBIN.. 05/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   41828061 42417925 43247794 43107674 41907677 40987779
               40577824 40677977 41828061