MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM NEWD INTO WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206...207...
   
   VALID 290746Z - 290915Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   206...207...CONTINUES.
   
   THROUGH 09Z...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST FROM THE
   TX SOUTH PLAINS AND SRN PNHDL INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX.  CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND AN ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   AS OF 0725Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO CLUSTERS OF
   STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS...ONE OVER
   PARMER...BAILEY...CASTRO AND LAMB COUNTIES IN WRN TX...AND THE OTHER
   OVER HARDEMAN...FOARD AND WILBARGER COUNTIES IN NWRN TX INTO JACKSON
   COUNTY IN SWRN OK.  THE FORMER IS REMNANT FROM EARLIER SUPERCELLS
   WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM.  THIS ACTIVITY
   APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD AND WITHIN
   WRN EDGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CNTRL NM.
   
   LATEST GPS PW DATA INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS RAPIDLY MOISTENING NWD
   THROUGH WRN TX AND THE PNHDL ALONG WRN EXTENSION OF 30-40 KT LLJ. 
   THIS MOISTURE INCREASE IS OCCURRING BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATE PLUME...CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG.  LOCALLY
   BACKED SURFACE WINDS INVOF RETREATING WARM FRONT ALONG WITH 30-35 KT
   OF WSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  WHILE AN
   ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS THIS COMPLEX INTERACTS WITH
   WARM FRONT...SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   FARTHER TO THE E...SIMILAR PROCESSES ARE MAINTAINING
   ABOVE-MENTIONED...LATTER TSTM COMPLEX OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. 
   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG AND PERHAPS JUST S OF
   RETREATING FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF THE LTS/FSI AREAS TO JUST
   S OF THE OKC METRO AREA.  BOTH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
   AIR MASS MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS WRN INTO
   CNTRL OK THROUGH 12Z WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT E
   OF WW 206.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/29/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   33120253 33960293 35000239 35680151 35910057 35839971
               35569904 35169840 34519824 33529955 33080093 32860200
               33120253