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Mesoscale Discussion 625
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SE NM INTO SW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132030Z - 132200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS SE NM INTO SW TX. A
   WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN ISOLATED/BRIEF NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN WEAK TO
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN MOIST UPSLOPE
   FLOW REGIME. WHILE AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS
   PRESENT...THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE FRINGES OF STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
   FLOW FURTHER NORTH WITH AROUND 25 KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR NOTED IN
   20Z MESOANALYSIS. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...LACK
   OF STRONGER SHEAR...LIMITED UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PROXIMITY
   TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY AND ANY
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND RELATIVELY BRIEF WITH ANY
   GIVEN CELL. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 05/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   34170503 34620425 34810357 34540321 33890311 31930310
               30970321 30710419 31980483 33400548 34170503 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2016
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