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Mesoscale Discussion 625
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF GA...SC...SRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121755Z - 122030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A FEW
   STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CU INVOF THE SRN APPALACHIANS SEWD TOWARD COASTAL
   SC/GA. WITH STRONG INSOLATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPORTING
   ADDITIONAL SFC-LAYER HEATING AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER
   60S...MODERATE/UNINHIBITED BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
   FACILITATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SUBTLE LEE TROUGH BECOMES
   ESTABLISHED OVER THE PIEDMONT...AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED
   CIRCULATIONS/SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT. AS
   SUCH...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 15-25F SUGGEST SUB-CLOUD
   EVAPORATION WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND AN
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED
   DEEP ASCENT AND RELATIVELY MODEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY ROBUST. WITH ONLY MODEST
   DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE -- SLIGHTLY STRONGER FARTHER N -- CONVECTION
   SHOULD LACK SUBSTANTIAL ORGANIZATION...FURTHER LIMITING THE SVR
   RISK.

   ..COHEN/CONIGLIO/CORFIDI.. 05/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   34398427 35138282 35748051 35017861 34127801 31578144
               31748321 33288434 34398427 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2015
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