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Mesoscale Discussion 625
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IA...NRN IL AND ADJACENT SRN WI...SRN LAKE
   MI...NWRN IND AND SWRN MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161...

   VALID 202249Z - 210015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST...AND MAY STILL INCREASE SOME THROUGH 00-01Z.  ACTIVITY IS
   ALREADY FORMING AS FAR WEST AS AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF OMAHA NEB...WITH
   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
   LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA BY EARLY EVENING.  WHILE IT IS
   NOT CLEAR THAT THIS WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WATCHES...TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL
   UNDERWAY...GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMER...MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
   ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS REGION.  THIS ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS TO 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT
   ARCING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...INTO
   NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NEAR/WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO
   METRO...ALONG WHICH CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL PROPAGATE INTO EARLY
   EVENING.

   THOUGH SOMEWHAT MODEST IN MAGNITUDE...HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
   CONTENT IS ALSO FOCUSED ALONG THIS AXIS...SUPPORTING MODERATELY
   LARGE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.  BENEATH 40-50 KT
   WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR REMAIN RATHER
   WEAK...AND ANY ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL LARGELY HINGE
   ON UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND CONSOLIDATING/MERGING COLD POOLS. 
   POTENTIAL FOR THIS REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...BUT SEEMS LOW AT THE
   PRESENT TIME...DUE...ADDITIONALLY...TO THE APPARENT LACK OF STRONGER
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

   ..KERR.. 05/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41699579 42699147 42878973 42888774 41748583 41028723
               41378865 41659066 41339352 41439553 41699579 

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