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Mesoscale Discussion 626
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY / NEB PNHDL /NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160...

   VALID 202250Z - 210015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES
   IN DIAMETER WILL PERSIST WITH ONGOING STORMS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 2225Z...A COUPLE OF AREAS OF STORMS WERE BEING
   OBSERVED...ONE OVER ARAPAHOE AND ADAMS COUNTIES CO...AND THE OTHER
   OVER PLATTE...GOSHEN...CONVERSE...AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN WY.
   VOLUMETRIC RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MOST
   INTENSE CONVECTION...INCLUDING A SUPERCELL...IS OCCURRING WITH
   FORMER CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO 1.25 INCHES RECENTLY
   OBSERVED JUST SE OF DOWNTOWN DENVER. DOWNSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   AT AKO AND LIC INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 40S WITH A ROBUST CUMULUS FIELD AND RAP-DERIVED MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE CO-LOCATION OF A KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 40-50
   KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
   PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

   FARTHER TO THE NORTH...STORMS HAVE REMAINED COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
   PERHAPS IN PART TO A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AS
   SUGGESTED BY THE BILLOW CLOUD FORMATIONS OBSERVED JUST DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THIS ACTIVITY. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE SOME
   MODIFICATION OF THESE BILLOWS INTO MORE CUMULIFORM CLOUD STRUCTURES
   OVER GOSHEN CO WY INTO SCOTTS BLUFF CO NEB...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
   THAT THE ONGOING STORMS NEAR TOR WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
   OF SUSTAINING THEMSELVES INTO THIS EVENING. HERE TOO...SUFFICIENT
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY
   HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL.

   ..MEAD.. 05/20/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   39120540 39910542 39970564 41030634 41390633 41380610
               43480605 43540406 43020406 43010279 40450268 40410278
               39570278 39560311 38510315 38510406 39150408 39120540 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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