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Mesoscale Discussion 626
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LA...SERN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121807Z - 122000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING BENEATH TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS IS
   SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AMIDST THE MOIST AIR MASS /SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ REMAINING ONSHORE -- DESPITE BEING
   LOCATED N OF A DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY NEAR/JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS
   SUPPORTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH LIMITED CAPPING. WEAK SEA-BREEZE
   CIRCULATIONS COMBINED WITH DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL CIRCULATIONS MAY
   FOSTER AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
   WITH THE LCH AND LIX VWPS SAMPLING 25-35-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS ABOVE A
   LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW COMPONENT...DEEP SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTION WITH
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE HAIL/WIND APPROACHING MARGINALLY SVR THRESHOLDS.
   HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK
   FROM EVOLVING.

   ..COHEN/CONIGLIO/CORFIDI.. 05/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29799341 30919278 30908928 30208857 29388934 29249076
               29479216 29799341 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2015
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