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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO S-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208...
VALID 291109Z - 291245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208
CONTINUES.
THROUGH 12-13Z...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH MCS FROM THE LTS/SPS AREAS EWD
TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF S-CNTRL OK AND PERHAPS FAR N-CNTRL TX.
A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS OF 1050Z WITH LEADING
EDGE AND MOST INTENSE PORTION OF SYSTEM OVER COMANCHE AND COTTON
COUNTIES OK INTO WICHITA COUNTY TX. SYSTEM MOTION WAS EWD AT 20-25
KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MCS TRACK IS WELL CORRELATED WITH
POSITION OF SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM FROM NEAR
FSI ESEWD TO NEAR ADM INTO NERN TX.
REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL VEERING OF 45-55 KT
LLJ WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE INFLUX OF A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES/ INTO MCS. MOREOVER...
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SWRN/WRN TX SHOULD SERVE TO SUSTAIN SYSTEM
EWD/SEWD THIS MORNING. CURRENT FREDRICK OK VWP INDICATES
CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT...RESULTING IN AMPLE LOW
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. AS
SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRANSIENT BOWING/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.
..MEAD.. 04/29/2009
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33570021 34140057 35050039 35469951 35619763 35179707
34349702 33779721 33489820 33570021
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