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Mesoscale Discussion 627
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0702 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB / NERN CO / NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 210002Z - 210130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED DEVELOP EAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160
   BY 02Z. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO THIS TIME OVER
   THE REMAINDER OF NERN CO INTO PARTS OF NWRN KS...AND PERHAPS SWRN
   NEB.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX EVOLUTION HAS OCCURRED TO AN EARLIER
   SUPERCELL OVER ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES IN CO WITH VOLUMETRIC
   RADAR DATA NOW INDICATING MULTIPLE UPDRAFTS AND A GROWING COLD POOL.
   DOWNSTREAM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
   A MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AN ITR-GLD-HLC-RSL LINE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
   THE MID 50S AND RAP-ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000-2000
   J/KG.

   UPSCALE COLD-POOL GROWTH IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
   WATER LOADING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES IN THE AMBIENT STEEP
   LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT. BY ABOUT
   02-03Z...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW MAY BECOME ENHANCED BY THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A 25-30 KT ELY LLJ WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED
   EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS. IN
   ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL APPROACHING TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

   FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE WRN NEB PNHDL...STORM LONGEVITY
   REMAINS MORE IN QUESTION OWING TO THE POLEWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
   CURRENT ACTIVITY RELATIVE TO THE MOISTURE AXIS DELINEATED ABOVE. AS
   SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NECESSITY OF A
   DOWNSTREAM WATCH INTO PARTS OF WRN/SWRN NEB.

   ..MEAD/EDWARDS.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38840276 40110254 41000244 41310163 40910036 39970032
               39020067 38690161 38650217 38840276 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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