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Mesoscale Discussion 627
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121838Z - 122045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND IS THE
   GREATEST THREAT...BUT SMALL HAIL COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SHALLOW SHOWERS
   DEVELOPING NEAR A COLD FRONT FROM ERN NY INTO CNTRL PA. JUST E OF
   THIS FRONT...CU FIELDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING HAS
   MIXED OUT CIN. WEAK CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE
   RATES ALOFT HAVE RESULTED IN PRIMARILY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH NO
   LIGHTNING NOTED AS OF 1830Z.

   FARTHER E INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...A LEADING LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH IS
   PRESENT JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTAL FRONT...WITH A DEVELOPING
   POCKET OF INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND
   DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F. THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST
   CONDITIONAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM.

   WITH STRONG MEAN WINDS AND LONG HODOGRAPHS...SOME OF THE SHOWERS
   OVER ERN NY COULD EVENTUALLY GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHEAR
   WOULD FAVOR SMALL STORM CELLS CAPABLE OF PERHAPS MARGINAL
   HAIL...WHILE THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MEAN WINDS
   WILL FAVOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41787046 41667066 41567119 41537181 41427280 41587314
               41927319 42287291 43507182 43677112 43527038 43037062
               42477061 42007046 41787046 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2015
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