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Mesoscale Discussion 627
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TO WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO
   NORTHWEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175...

   VALID 132317Z - 140115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OK...AND ACROSS NORTHWEST TX
   INCLUDING THE TX PANHANDLE.  LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS
   ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH ACTIVITY IN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OK
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. 
   MEANWHILE...ONGOING STORMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
   MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THEY SPREAD TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

   COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE CAN CONTINUE TO BE
   REMOVED FROM WW 175...AS THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT WILL DECREASE
   MARKEDLY.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
   A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD...AND AT 23Z EXTENDED FROM
   SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST OK TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF
   THE TX PANHANDLE.  THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NEW STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST OK IS RELATIVELY
   NARROW...WITH ONGOING STORMS MOVING THROUGH THAT CORRIDOR NOW. 
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40-50 KT WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED...ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THE
   SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT MAY MOVE INTO A TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF WW
   175 FROM KINGFISHER TO PAYNE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.  THOUGH...THESE
   STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH THE
   OKLAHOMA CITY METRO BETWEEN 01-02Z...WHERE INSTABILITY IS MUCH
   WEAKER AND SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE LOSS
   OF DAYTIME HEATING.

   MEANWHILE...THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE
   TO ADJACENT SOUTHWEST OK ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONGER THAN THE
   STORMS IN NORTH/NORTHWEST OK...SINCE THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS LOCATED
   WITHIN AND CLOSER TO A GREATER SUPPLY OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  THIS
   INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO AROUND 40 KT
   SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL
   AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  THE ESRL-HRRR AND OPERATIONAL HRRR EACH
   SUGGEST THIS GENERAL SCENARIO FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF WW 175 TO
   HAVE A PROLONGED SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

   ..PETERS.. 05/13/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33460300 35170298 35740145 36300014 36659868 36979784
               36969677 36279693 35819723 35339805 34489808 33969864
               33399898 33380297 33460300 

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