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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION
EWD INTO N TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291707Z - 291900Z
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY
REGION OF TX -- ALONG WITH SLOWLY-INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL. WW
MAY BE REQUIRED.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN A W-E
BAND FROM BORDEN COUNTY TX EWD TOWARD THE DFW METROPLEX -- ALONG AN
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEGUN TO STALL ACROSS THIS REGION.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
YIELDING MODERATE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. WHILE BOTH THE JAYTON TX
PROFILER AND DYESS AFB VWP SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW AROUND 700
MB...THE OVERALL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
STORMS. AS ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCUR...EXPECT STORMS
TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO EVOLVING --
PARTICULARLY WITH STORMS INVOF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOCALLY-ENHANCED
VORTICITY/BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD EXISTS.
..GOSS.. 04/29/2009
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31720167 32320208 33640167 33539903 33039666 32309658
31819725 31720167
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