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Mesoscale Discussion 628
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0821 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX INTO WESTERN PART OF
   NORTH-CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175...

   VALID 140121Z - 140245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT MAY SPREAD SOUTH OF WW 175 ACROSS
   THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TX THIS EVENING...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL NEED FOR A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
   STORM MERGERS AND AN AMALGAMATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   ACROSS WESTERN HARDEMAN/NORTHWEST FOARD TO MOTLEY COUNTIES IN
   NORTHWEST TX...WITH THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
   AT 30 KT.  A RESIDUAL RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY IS
   LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND
   TX BIG COUNTRY.  ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY MODEST TO
   PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A LARGE AMOUNT OF DCAPE /CLOSE TO 1500
   J/KG PER MAF 00Z SOUNDING/ WITH AN INVERTED-V THERMAL PROFILE ARE
   SUPPORTIVE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  THIS SUGGESTS A
   SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT COULD PROCEED TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...EXITING
   WW 175 BY 03Z...AND SUPPORT NEW WW ISSUANCE PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZATION.

   EXCEPT FOR THE 21Z HRRR...THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THIS MODEL
   SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO WITH A BOWING LINE OF STORMS TRACKING ACROSS
   THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND TX BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 05/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33360118 33680105 33880010 34039947 33959903 33239865
               32219845 31879910 31770035 31890047 32180091 32830123
               33360118 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2016
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