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Mesoscale Discussion 628
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL INTO NRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161...

   VALID 210106Z - 210230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
   INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WHICH COULD REQUIRE AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH ...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGEST RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS GENERALLY
   BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO.  THIS ACTIVITY
   APPEARS TO HAVE COINCIDED WITH A SMALL FOCUSED AREA OF LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION /BASED AROUND 700 MB/...WHICH THE LATEST
   RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS MAY PERSIST WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD
   NEAR/SOUTH OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH
   THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY
   HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
   ALONG THIS TRACK...THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL ORGANIZED CLUSTER WITH
   THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY NOT YET BE OUT OF
   THE QUESTION...AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE FORT WAYNE AREA THIS
   EVENING.

   ..KERR.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

   LAT...LON   42048888 42068838 41778754 41698722 41708646 41718556
               41088531 40728581 40758682 41048804 41318854 42048888 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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