MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158...
   
   VALID 110707Z - 110830Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...MCS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
   NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER A PORTION OF DEEP S TX. HOWEVER...TRENDS HAVE
   BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST
   COUPLE HOURS...AND OVERALL THREAT APPEARS INCREASINGLY MARGINAL.
   
   DISCUSSION...MCS IS MOVING THROUGH WRN PORTION OF DEEP S TX AT
   AROUND 20 KT. BOTH CAPPI AND MESH TRENDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING DURING
   THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS DEEP S TX REMAINS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
   RAOB FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION
   ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR AT THE BASE OF THE EML. BASED ON RECENT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BE HAVING A
   DETRIMENTAL EFFECT ON THE STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL
   STILL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS TO INTENSIFY WITHIN ZONE OF
   FORCING AND ASCENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL
   CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/11/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BRO...
   
   LAT...LON   26229843 26799828 27239820 27109740 25999729 26229843