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Mesoscale Discussion 629
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0629
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX COASTAL PLAIN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121930Z - 122200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY MAY OCCUR THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON...AND THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW
   ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A WEAK TROUGH/DIFFUSE
   BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ALONG THE TX COAST. VWPS AT CRP AND HGX SAMPLE A
   VEERING WIND PROFILE HIGHLIGHTING THE MODEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   IN PLACE. MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS CONTINUES
   SUPPORTING SFC HEATING OF A MOIST PBL FEATURING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER 70S. GIVEN THE HIGH THETA-E IN THE LOW LEVELS LIMITING
   MLCINH...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION PER RECENT VIS
   IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VWPS SAMPLING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM
   THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...35-40 KT OF DEEP SHEAR MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE MARGINAL
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL SRH WITH
   THE BACKED/ELY SFC-FLOW COMPONENT...THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE PROCESSING ONSHORE AND RELATED
   DEPOSITION OF STATIC STABILITY -- ALBEIT DIURNALLY ERODING -- A MORE
   ROBUST SVR RISK MAY BE INHIBITED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26099731 26119826 26409897 27589913 29259705 30289452
               30019391 30069389 29759386 29509451 28729582 27529731
               26099731 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2015
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