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Mesoscale Discussion 630
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHWEST TX...FAR SOUTH CNTRL NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122040Z - 122245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MEXICAN HIGH
   TERRAIN AND WILL MOVE INTO THE MCD AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW
   DMGG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE
   AREA AFFECTED AND INTENSITY OF THE THREAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
   SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.
   HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER
   COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SIERRA
   MADRE OCCIDENTALS AND HAVE TAKEN ON A LINEAR ORGANIZATION APPARENTLY
   ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL. MODIFIED 12Z EL PASO
   SOUNDING SUPPORTS A CONTINUED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO SOUTHWEST TX
   INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NM WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO BUILD ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL
   ZONE...A NARROW ZONE OF HEATING FROM THE WESTERN BIG BEND REGION
   INTO THE EL PASO AREA HAS ALLOWED SBCAPE TO INCREASE TO THE 500 TO
   1000 J/KG RANGE. SMALL BOWING STRUCTURES OBSERVED IN THE CONVECTION
   OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE NORTHERN OCCIDENTALS SUGGESTS THAT THE
   CONVECTION IS DEEP ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR
   IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
   THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE MCD AREA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
   LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
   GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND MOST ORGANIZED
   BOWING/LINEAR STRUCTURES. THE SMALL AREA AFFECTED BY THE CONVECTION
   IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL THREAT...SHOULD
   PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE IN THAT TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED FOR ANY DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE MCD AREA...WHICH
   COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEATHER WATCH.

   ..CONIGLIO/COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31180586 31620647 31850683 31980714 32180754 32600780
               32950762 33010709 32580549 32140490 31550462 31140442
               30590420 30220440 30130467 30380496 30470508 31080576
               31180586 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2015
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