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Mesoscale Discussion 630
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0956 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161...

   VALID 210256Z - 210430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ANY LINGERING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS REMAINING STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
   DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THE REMAINING VALID
   PORTION OF WW 161 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 04Z.

   DISCUSSION...DEFINITIVE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS APPEAR WELL
   UNDERWAY IN LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA.  THIS INCLUDES
   THE WDSS-II MESH DATA...WHICH INDICATES A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN
   SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH STORMS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  WITH
   WEAK TO NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO STABILIZE WITH THE
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LINGERING ONGOING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME.

   ..KERR.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41429504 41849444 42349139 42428943 41828771 41368807
               41648979 41429504 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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