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Mesoscale Discussion 630
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0630
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN ORE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142048Z - 142245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF
   THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN
   ORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER LOW
   OVER THE ORE COAST AS OF 2030Z. MODEST DIURNAL HEATING IN THE LOWER
   ELEVATIONS OF THE MCD AREA HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
   TO LOWER 50S. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED...STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0-8.0 DEG C/KM HAVE OVERSPREAD THE MCD AREA AS
   THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD. RESULTANT MLCAPE UP TO
   500 J/KG IS NOW PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN ORE. WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH HEIGHT TO AROUND 40-45 KT AT MID
   LEVELS PER KPDT VWP. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KT MAY
   ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME PERIODICALLY
   ORGANIZED. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
   SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
   THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NWD/NEWD WITH TIME. THE LACK OF A MORE ROBUST
   FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT A GREATER
   SEVERE RISK...PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 05/14/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...

   LAT...LON   43762161 45422062 45681939 45761757 44561729 43461744
               42951945 42782068 42982159 43762161 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2016
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