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Mesoscale Discussion 631
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0734 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PORTION OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131234Z - 131330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW WEAK SHALLOW CIRCULATIONS
   ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY ORGANIZE WITHIN A VERY
   MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.  ISOLD WIND DAMAGE IS THE PRIMARY RISK.

   DISCUSSION...SINGLE SITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SUPERCELL IN
   UVALDE COUNTY AND AN ORGANIZING LINE SEGMENT STRADDLING THE RIO
   GRANDE IN MAVERICK COUNTY.  SHALLOW/WEAK TRANSIENT ROTATION HAS BEEN
   OBSERVED DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AMIDST
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S IS ENLARGING THE LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH AND RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED THIS MORNING
   OWING TO AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
   LOWER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
   LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLD NATURE OF THE THREAT...A
   WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY DESTABILIZES THIS MORNING.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28360040 29890002 29969924 29669859 28919867 28219910
               27949958 28360040 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2015
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