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Mesoscale Discussion 631
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW TX INTO SE NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151839Z - 152015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER
   HIGHER TERRAIN IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   IS MEAGER...CLEARING HAS ALLOWED STRONG HEATING AND MLCAPE VALUES
   WERE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG PER 18Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. WEAK
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LACK OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL LIMIT
   COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...STEEP
   LAPSE RATES BOTH IN THE MIDLEVELS AND NEAR THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT
   SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE THREAT OF ANY
   GIVEN CELL...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 05/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   29800472 31470565 32190593 32660602 32940579 33130536
               33110482 32790417 32290357 31780301 31090254 30360214
               29880198 29550196 29180223 28880295 28900336 29150392
               29800472 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2016
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