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Mesoscale Discussion 631
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INDIANA...SRN LOWER MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163...

   VALID 210423Z - 210600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS COULD STILL
   INCREASE WITH STORMS APPROACHING THE FORT WAYNE AREA THROUGH THE
   05-06Z TIME FRAME.  OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL MAY STILL ACCOMPANY SOME
   OF THE STRONGER STORMS LINGERING AROUND THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
   AREA.

   DISCUSSION...SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH
   AND EAST OF SOUTH BEND REMAINS VIGOROUS...AND IS GENERALLY
   MAINTAINING INTENSITY BASED ON LATEST LIGHTNING DATA AND INFRARED
   SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WDSS-II DATA SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE WANING...BUT THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A
   WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WHICH
   COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE FORT WAYNE
   AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z.  MODEST STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO AROUND 30 KT HAS OCCURRED ATOP THE DECOUPLING
   BOUNDARY LAYER...AND DOWNDRAFTS DRIVEN BY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND
   SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE DOWNWARD
   TRANSFER OF THIS MOMENTUM.  AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
   INTO A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER/LESS MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER ENVIRONMENT TO
   THE EAST OF FORT WAYNE...THIS MARGINAL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
   OVERNIGHT.

   ..KERR.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   42988645 42698497 41788394 40808441 40558539 41098664
               41418771 42188786 42988645 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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