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Mesoscale Discussion 632
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...FAR NRN MO...NRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 210627Z - 210800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FROM SRN
   IA ENEWD ACROSS NRN IL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE THREAT
   SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
   FROM NEAR THE MO-IA STATE LINE ENEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO IL.
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP-V2. MUCAPE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 1500
   J/KG BUT A SHARP SFC INVERSION IS IN PLACE WHICH IS MAKING THE
   CONVECTION ELEVATED. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES
   ARE STEEP MAINLY FROM THE SFC TROUGH SWD. THIS ALONG WITH ABOUT 40
   KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SEVERE HAILSTORMS. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS
   SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

   ..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41138906 40369250 40209345 40219421 40289491 40559504
               40819487 41259352 42239044 42368778 41638742 41318790
               41138906 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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