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Mesoscale Discussion 632
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN NM INTO SRN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152032Z - 152230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   CONTINUES EWD...LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS OVERSPREAD NRN NM/SRN CO.
   EVEN WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING
   EWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN AZ AND A VEERING/STRENGTHENING
   WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT PER THE KABX VWP...SEVERAL OF THE
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXHIBITED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH WEAK
   MID-LEVEL ROTATION ACROSS NRN NM OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN
   MLCAPE AROUND 500-750 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35-45 KT
   PER 20Z RAP MESOANALYSIS AND VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THESE
   ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND STRONG/GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WIND RISK THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
   AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY NEWD WITH TIME INTO PARTS OF SRN CO. WW ISSUANCE
   IS NOT EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 05/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

   LAT...LON   37400448 36380448 35280510 34790597 34840697 35500735
               36040741 37310704 37540559 37400448 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2016
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