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Mesoscale Discussion 633
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...NE NM...OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR SW KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 161906Z - 162030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS
   DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST FROM SE CO/NE NM INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND
   FAR SW KS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
   UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN SE CO. STRONGER HEATING AND
   BETTER EROSION OF THE CAP HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA INTO NE NM
   AS SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FURTHER
   EAST INTO SW KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...CAPPING REMAINS FAIRLY
   STRONG DUE TO PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. OVER THE LAST 30 MIN
   OR SO...VIS SATELLITE HAS SHOWN BREAKS OF THIS CLOUDINESS AND
   HEATING IS QUICKLY LEADING TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION. AS LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED
   HEATING...CAPPING SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /GREATER THAN 7.5 C PER KM/
   ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
   40-50 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER
   IMPULSE EJECTS ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
   BACKED...HODOGRAPHS ABOVE ABOUT 1 KM ARE RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL. AS
   SUCH...STORMS MAY SPLIT AND GROW UPSCALE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH
   AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. 
   WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO...A LACK OF BETTER LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER/MORE WIDESPREAD TORNADO RISK. A
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR.

   ..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 05/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37470466 37680435 37780390 37800314 37730270 37410196
               36570044 35899974 35419942 35059929 34699921 34389934
               34159977 34040016 34110080 34270128 34540195 36530435
               37020466 37470466 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2016
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