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Mesoscale Discussion 633
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NW OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163...

   VALID 210656Z - 210830Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS WW 163. AN ISOLATED HAIL
   THREAT SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE WATCH ACROSS SRN
   LOWER MI BUT WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED THERE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCS LOCATED
   ACROSS NRN INDIANA...NW OH AND SRN LOWER MI. THIS CONVECTION IS
   BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST RAP-V2 DATA SUGGESTS A SFC
   INVERSION IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH IS MAKING THE
   CONVECTION ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS ALONG WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500
   J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH
   FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
   SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WHERE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
   INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AND THE CAPPING INVERSION IS THE WEAKEST.
   DUE TO THESE FACTORS...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED EARLY
   THIS MORNING.

   ..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   40468430 40658555 41148674 41538711 42028720 42978678
               43418607 43638461 43398352 42978246 42178237 40758311
               40468430 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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