MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 111953Z - 112100Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...SMALL-SCALE BUT INTENSE BOW ECHO CROSSING MANHATTAN AT
   TIME. LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 40-50KT AND TORRENTIAL RAIN/SMALL HAIL
   WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR.
   IMPACTED AREA REMAINS TOO LOCALIZED FOR SVR WATCH AND EXPECT
   CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER MORE
   STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS.
   
   DISCUSSION...INTENSE BOWING CONVECTION HAS FORMED A BOW AND BOW-HEAD
   COMMA JUST WEST OF MANHATTAN IN THE LAST 20-30 MINUTES AND WILL MOVE
   EAST INTO WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WRN LONG ISLAND. AREAL THREAT OF
   SEVERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WATCH...ESPECIALLY AS
   STORMS BEGIN TO INGEST MORE STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS OFF THE COOLER
   ATLANTIC WATERS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/11/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...
   
   LAT...LON   40847428 41037397 41087362 41037336 40907314 40717305
               40537333 40437388 40667419 40847428