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Mesoscale Discussion 633
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131749Z - 132015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SVR
   HAIL IS INCREASING...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...INSOLATION IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN TX IS ONGOING AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
   ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA OVERLIES THE
   REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 60S...AND MODESTLY
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...MLCAPE INCREASING TO 500-1500
   J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WITH FURTHER DIURNAL HEATING INVOF A
   N/S-ORIENTED LEE TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF W TX. THE PRESENCE OF 30-40
   KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS
   WITH SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL STATIC STATIC STABILITY
   FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PROCESSING MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE IN SOME
   AREAS...LIMITING THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT AND PERHAPS MAGNITUDE OF
   THE SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29860216 32030234 33340211 33020031 31369981 29880065
               29860216 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2015
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