MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WRN KS...WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 213...
   
   VALID 292217Z - 292345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 213 CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
   AND SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS NORTH
   AND EAST OF WW 213. A FEW TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO WATCH MAY BE LOCALLY EXPANDED
   TO COVER PARTS OF SW OK.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE IN WEST TX ON THE CAPROCK WITH A
   MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE. THE STORMS
   ARE LOCATED ON THE NRN END OF THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THIS MORNINGS MCS. THE STORMS ARE ALSO
   DEVELOPING ON THE NERN EDGE OF A DRY SLOT AND SHOULD REMAIN INTENSE
   MOVING NEWD INTO SWRN OK WHERE MLCAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG AND
   MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT ACCORDING TO THE RUC. IN
   ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER NORTH TX IS FORECAST BY SHORT-TERM
   MODELS TO EXPAND NWD INTO WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS
   SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS ONGOING IN THE TX PANHANDLE.
   
   FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SW KS...LESS MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND THE RUC
   SUGGESTS VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER. HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY
   EXISTS FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD LIKELY
   BE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THIS THREAT COULD EXPAND ENEWD
   INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF WW 213 BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/29/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   33840002 33830206 34340212 34350198 34750197 34740216
               36470218 36480300 37610303 37640272 38260269 38230353
               38520354 38530318 38610318 38610203 38690203 38690026
               37470022 37460010 37000009 36999995 33820003 33840002