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Mesoscale Discussion 634
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW AND W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162024Z - 162230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION WILL
   POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THE
   CU FIELD IS BECOMING AGITATED...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO
   INITIATE ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAF SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE
   BIG BEND REGION AS OF 20Z. WHILE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER
   COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER N ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   WEAK SLY WINDS DO VEER TO WLY AT 500 MB WHILE ALSO INCREASING TO
   AROUND 35-40 KT. RESULTANT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF GENERALLY
   35-40 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN SUSTAIN
   ITSELF TO BECOME ORGANIZED. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
   DRYLINE HAS WARMED SFC TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S. SFC DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S COMBINED WITH THIS STRONG HEATING HAS
   ALLOWED MLCAPE TO INCREASE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IN
   COMBINATION WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND E OF THE
   DRYLINE. HOWEVER...RAP MESOANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   CAPPING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MCD REGION...AND IT REMAINS
   UNCLEAR IF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME SUSTAINED
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REGARDLESS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
   FORM SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 05/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29630253 28880298 28940346 29500449 29790479 30130484
               30020403 30480262 31290193 31810170 31910093 31689962
               30699974 29230100 29680154 29630253 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2016
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