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Mesoscale Discussion 634
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131924Z - 132200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING NNEWD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
   TX MAY PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE NNW/SSE-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
   BANDS DEVELOPING NNEWD FROM STRONGER CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER SRN TX.
   THIS ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN A BROAD/DEEP MOIST PLUME AHEAD OF A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN TX. GPS DATA INDICATE PW VALUES AROUND
   1.6-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP LOADING
   COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS. FURTHERMORE...THE FWS VWP SAMPLES DEEP
   MERIDIONAL FLOW AROUND 35 KT EXTENDING ABOVE 0.5 KM AGL...WHICH MAY
   SUPPORT OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
   BANDS. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...A
   WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD CANOPY HAS STUNTED PBL DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND POOR LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP...NEARLY MOIST-NEUTRAL PROFILE EXIST WITHIN
   THE MOIST PLUME. AS SUCH...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPWARD ACCELERATIONS WILL
   BE LIMITED WITH CONVECTION...THUS MITIGATING THE OVERALL SVR TSTM
   RISK.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   29869602 31199643 32259651 32439594 31979515 31309486
               30599494 29909554 29869602 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2015
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