MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NC INTO SE VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 112311Z - 120015Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC/VA
   TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
   WILL REMAIN LOW. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF CLEARING AHEAD OF APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH/WIND SHIFT ACROSS CNTRL NC INTO PARTS OF SE VA HAS ALLOWED
   FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. STORMS
   ALONG THE WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAVE
   SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ONLY BRIEF UPTICKS IN
   INTENSITY EXPECTED.  NONETHELESS...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   /40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR/ AND FAST STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO
   SPORADIC STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN LINEAR SEGMENTS INTO
   THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...BUT A WW IS NOT
   EXPECTED.
   
   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/11/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   34857947 34988078 35258151 37927886 38697787 38577637
               37387583 36407658 34857947