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Mesoscale Discussion 635
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 132037Z - 132300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
   STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO
   THE EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE
   IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT CURLING
   AROUND THE SRN/ERN SIDES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS
   W TX/ERN NM. RELATED EROSION OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
   EARLIER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS GIVEN WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL
   CLEARING SW OF A COMPOSITE DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ANALYZED FROM N OF PLAINVIEW TO NEAR ABILENE TO E OF JUNCTION. THIS
   BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY EDGE NWD AS AN ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO
   1.0-1.5 MB PER 2 HOURS PRESSURE FALLS ANALYZED TO ITS N...RELATED TO
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE BAROCLINIC
   BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A LEE TROUGH N OF PLAINVIEW THAT EXTENDS
   SWD/SWWD INTO SWRN TX. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE WARM
   SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ESPECIALLY W OF THE LEE TROUGH...WILL
   CONTINUE TO FACILITATE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. BANDED CU
   DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED NEAR AND W OF THE LEE TROUGH IN
   RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FROM WHICH DEEPER CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS DCVA OVERLIES THE REGION.

   CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS INTO THE SECTOR OF MARGINALLY
   BUOYANT AIR SUPPORTED BY INSOLATION AMIDST LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS
   BETWEEN THE LEE TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. THE DYX VWP SAMPLES
   AROUND 35-40 OF DEEP SHEAR WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE...WHICH MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR
   HAIL/WIND. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AIDED BY RELATIVELY BACKED SFC FLOW. SUCH ACTIVITY
   WILL SPREAD NEWD/EWD TOWARD THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX AND PERHAPS
   SW OK INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AND BACKING OF THE FLOW WITH HEIGHT ABOVE 6 KM AGL
   POTENTIALLY MITIGATING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...CAST DOUBT ON THE
   OVERALL SVR RISK -- IN ADDITION TO THE NARROW SPATIAL EXTENT OF
   GREATER BUOYANCY.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/13/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   32830045 33130077 33700097 34290121 34920143 35200085
               34909976 33419938 32889989 32830045 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2015
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