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Mesoscale Discussion 635
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL...MUCH OF INDIANA...MUCH  OH...NRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 211654Z - 211930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITHIN A WEAK LOW
   PRESSURE TROUGH AND ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE EARLY DAY
   PRECIPITATION FROM NRN IND INTO OH. A CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND
   FROM ERN IL INTO OH DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
   RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F. 

   CONFLUENT WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE A NW-SE
   ORIENTED ZONE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS AS FAR W AS ERN IL BUT
   CENTERED OVER INDIANA INTO SWRN OH. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL INITIALLY
   THEN POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE CONTAINING
   BOTH HAIL AND WIND. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
   STRONGEST AND MOST SLY-MOVING OF THE SUPERCELLS.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   38458603 38898693 39528750 40288805 40808791 40878700
               40638435 40288221 40208182 39828134 39618124 39448120
               38588198 38158322 38138435 38458603 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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