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Mesoscale Discussion 636
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0959 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL OK / FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178...

   VALID 170259Z - 170330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SWATHS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR
   WITH THE LEADING EDGE/APEX OF THE LARGER-SCALE BOWING COMPLEX. 
   MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 70-80 MPH RANGE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED HYBRID SUPERCELL ON THE
   LEADING EDGE OF A CONGEALED TSTM COMPLEX OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
   ARCING NEWD INTO W-CNTRL OK AND NWD INTO NWRN OK.  A RECENTLY
   MEASURED GUST AT A MESONET SITE IN HEMPHILL COUNTY TX NEAR THE APEX
   RECORDED A 74 MPH GUST.  THE COMPLEX HAS MOVED INTO A MORE
   MOISTURE-RICH REGIME ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE VERY STEEP H7-H5
   LAPSE RATES /REFERENCE THE 00Z AMA AND OUN RAOBS/.  AS SUCH...THE
   COMBINATION OF STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AND THE EXPECTED MATURED
   PHASE OF THE TSTM COMPLEX LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SWATHS OF
   70-80 MPH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS
   MAINLY WRN OK DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ..SMITH.. 05/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35969964 35809899 35329916 35189973 35430032 35969964 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2016
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