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Mesoscale Discussion 636
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CO PALMER DIVIDE AND HIGH PLAINS E OF THE FRONT
   RANGE / SERN WY / WRN NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 211809Z - 211945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY 1 OR 2 OF
   THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS DENOTES AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM 15 MI W ITR TO 45 MI E OF DEN AND ARCING NWD THROUGH
   THE CYS VICINITY ALONG I-25.  RELATIVELY MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW
   CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEG F AND STRONG HEATING WILL
   LEAD TO UPWARDS OF 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON.  

   ALTHOUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA IS LOCATED UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
   AXIS...OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WIDELY
   SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG VEERING
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS.  THERE IS THE EXPECTATION THAT A FEW
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL MOVE INTO A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   VORTICITY /I.E. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR DCVZ/ AND AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATION AND INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADO AS A RESULT. 
   STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR BOTH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
   LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42680366 43240442 43360580 42890656 42160574 41520548
               39360491 39180393 39390314 42680366 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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