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Mesoscale Discussion 637
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN VA...MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 211810Z - 212045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING CONTINUES OVER VA AND SRN MD WITH
   TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S F ALONG WITH LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS.
   THIS HAS ERODED INHIBITION WITH CELLS BEGINNING TO FORM OVER N CNTRL
   VA AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...MIDLEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO ABOUT 50
   KT...CREATING FAVORABLY LONG HODOGRAPHS FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK FOR A TORNADO
   THREAT...BUT SOME INCREASED SHEAR MAY EXIST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
   FAR ERN VA/SRN MD. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NRN
   VA...THEN SPREAD SEWD ACROSS ERN VA AND MD.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   37567841 38367944 38917950 39237922 39337782 39127705
               38267593 37547557 36947561 36627601 36617664 36997753
               37567841 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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