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Mesoscale Discussion 637
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0715 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK...AND
   WRN N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 140015Z - 140145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A
   DAMAGING WIND GUST WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A
   BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE MCD AREA INDICATE
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES HAVE INCREASED IN
   INTENSITY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SFC WINDS
   REMAIN BACKED OUT OF THE SE...AND VWP FROM THE KFDR RADAR SUGGESTS
   0-3 KM FLOW IS VEERING SUFFICIENTLY WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS AND SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY WITH ERN EXTENT...WITH
   MUCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. DUE TO PRIOR RAINFALL
   AND THE STABILIZATION OF THE LOW LEVELS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE
   OF THE THREAT AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH
   THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33629967 33570018 34380084 35390155 35740108 35660009
               34739874 34399857 33879906 33629967 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2015
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