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Mesoscale Discussion 638
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK INTO NWRN/N TX NEAR THE RED RIVER

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178...179...

   VALID 170708Z - 170915Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   178...179...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW
   MORE HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
   MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. UNTIL THEN, ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES EWD
   THROUGH CNTRL INTO ERN OK WITH MOST OBSERVATION STATIONS REPORTING
   SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THIS PORTION OF THE LINE
   SHOULD PERSIST DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.

   STRONGER STORMS WERE ONGOING FROM NEAR CDS SEWD ALONG THE RED RIVER.
   SOME OF THESE CELLS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SEVERE HAIL...BUT NOTHING
   VERY LONG-LIVED. WITH TIME...LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE SEEMS TO BE THE
   MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE ESEWD ALONG THE SRN
   FLANK OF THE COLD POOL. DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN TX AND SE OF THE
   EXISTING SVR WATCH...INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THERE IS A CAPPING
   INVERSION WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS GET SE
   OF SPS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34390016 34519980 34649867 34809788 35129732 35619700
               35629670 35379655 34609664 33789660 33299689 33399788
               33749911 33899997 34210018 34390016 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2016
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