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Mesoscale Discussion 638
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL IL...NERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 211840Z - 212045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CU FIELD INCREASING WITHIN
   THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL IL...AND EXTEND WWD ACROSS NRN
   MO. MODIFYING THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS YIELDS
   STRONG INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

   MEANWHILE...SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO GET STRONGER AS A DISTURBANCE
   MOVES NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL. THIS WILL NOT ONLY LENGTHEN
   HODOGRAPHS...BUT WILL ALSO INCREASE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND HELP
   INITIATION.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39098821 39288929 39489007 39589062 39739147 39949287
               40139305 40389293 40869074 40988958 40868853 40498754
               39858739 39078759 39098821 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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