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Mesoscale Discussion 639
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX AND FAR SERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141936Z - 142130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN TX...SERN NM AND THE TX S PLAINS
   BY LATE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...SELY SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING LOWER 60S F
   DEWPOINTS NWWD ACROSS WRN TX AND INTO SERN NM WHERE HEATING
   CONTINUES BENEATH PATCHY CIRRUS. CU FIELDS WERE EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN NM IN AN UPSLOPE
   FLOW REGIME.

   MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EVIDENT ACROSS NRN
   MX...AND WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO SWRN TX LATER TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
   ALSO DEPICTS THIS FEATURE WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT AROUND 21Z AND
   ENHANCED LIFT.

   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SWRN TX AND SERN NM OVER THE NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS...WITH AN EWD EXPANSION WITH THROUGH EVENING. WHILE
   FLOW ALOFT IS NOT STRONG...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
   INCREASE STORM PROPAGATION...WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY...SOME
   SPLITTING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..JEWELL/GUYER.. 05/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   31610070 31050155 30840281 31290369 31660421 32160438
               33040419 33620303 34270217 34440126 34100032 33259983
               32520006 32080039 31610070 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2015
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