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Mesoscale Discussion 639
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171606Z - 171800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS LIKELY FORM. THIS REGION
   WILL BE UPGRADED TO MARGINAL RISK IN THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

   DISCUSSION...12Z RAOBS AT KEY/MFL/JAX ALL SAMPLED PW VALUES AROUND 2
   INCHES INDICATIVE OF THE RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY 73-77 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO UPPER
   80S SOUTH...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
   OF 1500-2500 J/KG. JAX/TBW VWP DATA SAMPLED A BELT OF 30-35 KT
   MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
   HEIGHT...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS TO TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAINLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF STORM
   DEVELOPMENT. CONSENSUS OF MORNING CAMS SUGGESTS PREDOMINANT CLUSTER
   MODE...EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER SOUTH FL WHERE SEMI-DISCRETE MODE MAY
   PREVAIL BUT AMID A WEAKER OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   26677991 25758007 25658123 28048251 29578277 30238255
               30538208 30658141 26677991 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2016
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