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Mesoscale Discussion 639
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 211942Z - 212045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN CO.  A LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUST
   RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS RISING
   THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S ACROSS SERN CO AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW
   AIDS IN MAINTAINING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 DEG F.  SWELLING
   CONVECTION AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OVER SERN CO AND THE RATON RIDGE.  CONTINUED HEATING AND
   STEEPENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP.
    WITH TIME...A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES
   WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.  ISOLD LARGE
   HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
   CORES.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37080447 38110504 38850490 39150356 38880274 38070210
               37130233 36850321 36990414 37080447 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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