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Mesoscale Discussion 640
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LA/MS/AL AND THE FAR WRN FL
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171848Z - 172015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT. PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WILL
   BE UPGRADED TO A MARGINAL RISK WITH THE 20Z UPDATE TO THE DAY 1
   CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ALONG AND
   TO THE S OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MINOR
   SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WITHIN BROAD WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. VWP FROM
   KLIX SHOWS A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK /AOB 25 KT/. REGARDLESS...0-3 KM SRH IS
   ESTIMATED AROUND 150 M2/S2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD REGION...AND RADAR
   IMAGERY FROM KLIX SHOWS MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER WRN
   HARRISON COUNTY IN SRN MS THAT HAVE EXHIBITED SOME LOW-LEVEL
   ROTATION OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES. PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   PRESENT S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS REGIME TO POSE A BRIEF/ISOLATED
   TORNADO AND STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THIS
   ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD INTO SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WITH TIME.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 05/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29539140 30099112 30689048 30868924 31058807 31148734
               31048655 30308661 30158745 30078885 29548924 29138961
               28969030 28929089 29209135 29539140 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2016
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