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Mesoscale Discussion 640
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN CO AND SWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142020Z - 142245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CO AND SWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WW ISSUANCE IS
   NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED
   LIGHTNING ARE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CO AT THE ERN EDGE OF
   NEAR-DRY-ADIABATIC SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES THAT ALIGN WITH A
   NW/SE-ORIENTED LEE TROUGH. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE OF PUEBLO TO W
   OF SPRINGFIELD. VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL CHARACTER OF
   THE RELATED CU FIELD IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST WITH RESPECT TO
   VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS OWING TO MID-LEVEL STABLE LAYERS
   SAMPLED BY THE AMA AND DNR 12Z RAOBS. REGARDLESS...ISOLATED
   CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS DIURNALLY ENHANCED PBL
   CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND SFC CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ALONG THE LEE
   TROUGH. THE PUX VWP SAMPLES DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH A VEERING WIND
   PROFILE THAT WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR...THOUGH ONLY MODEST
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESTRICT DEEP SHEAR.

   NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN E OF THE LEE TROUGH HAS
   SUPPORTED SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO ENCOURAGE MLCAPE AROUND
   500-1500 J/KG GIVEN MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD...POTENTIALLY CONTAINING ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND. STRONG SFC WINDS WOULD BE AIDED BY
   SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR-20F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS. HOWEVER...LACKING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH THE
   ABSENCE OF STRONGER BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL
   SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/GUYER.. 05/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37150261 37670359 38190404 38530277 38280163 37580109
               37170160 37150261 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2015
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