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Mesoscale Discussion 641
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER PECOS VALLEY TO EDWARDS PLATEAU

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171852Z - 172045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS FORMING WITHIN OVER THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY
   SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY
   BE RELATIVELY CONFINED SHORT-TERM WITHIN THIS REGION BEFORE
   INCREASING DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
   SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY. THE AIR MASS
   WITHIN THIS AREA AND THE CONCHO VALLEY APPEARS TO BE MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL VEERING
   OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...A COUPLE SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
   HOURS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF LARGE HAIL. DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN
   EDWARDS PLATEAU TO HILL COUNTRY...ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF 
   LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT RIPPLED SOUTHWARD HAS LIMITED
   SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE SEVERE
   THREAT BEING SPATIALLY CONFINED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31440258 31720229 31670183 31500122 31090031 30589960
               29879916 29379934 29199973 29310017 29410069 30350177
               30940237 31440258 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2016
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