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Mesoscale Discussion 641
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142044Z - 142315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME RISK OF ISOLATED
   STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...MODEST AIR
   MASS RECOVERY/HEATING HAS BEEN MOST PROMINENT FROM PARTS OF ERN KS
   TO SW/W-CNTRL MO -- I.E. TO THE W OF A N/S-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
   BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM NEAR KIRKSVILLE TO W OF WEST PLAINS. THIS IS
   WHERE POCKETS OF INSOLATION THROUGH TRANSLUCENT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
   HAVE YIELDED MINOR DESTABILIZATION AMIDST LOWER/MIDDLE 60S SFC
   DEWPOINTS -- ESPECIALLY W OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE EWD
   WITH TIME OWING TO AREAS OF HEATING TO ITS E.

   ISOLATED...GENERALLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THE LOW-MLCINH
   ENVIRONMENT W OF THE BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF FAR ERN KS /INVOF ALONG
   A SFC TROUGH/ AND IN THE PARTIALLY-DIURNALLY HEATED AIR W OF THE
   BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. SUCH ACTIVITY COULD DEEPEN FURTHER WITH
   ADDITIONAL SFC-LAYER HEATING...ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTURE OF STRONGER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NE OF
   THE REGION SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD. ALSO...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND
   TO LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. 

   HOWEVER...GIVEN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW TRAILING SW OF THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...AND GIVEN A RESIDUAL LLJ...THE EAX...LSX...AND SGF VWPS ARE
   SAMPLING NOTABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH
   A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR POTENTIALLY
   ROTATING STORMS. THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED
   INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND OR PERHAPS A SHORT-DURATION
   TORNADO. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED FOR A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/GUYER.. 05/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39239153 38519131 37899167 37499236 37409350 38159451
               38989440 39619300 39239153 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2015
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