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Mesoscale Discussion 641
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND E-CNTRL NM / TX SOUTH PLAINS / TX
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 212004Z - 212100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  LOCALLY
   INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR PROBABLE WITH
   THE STRONGER STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCTD CLOUD COVER ACROSS
   THE NM/W TX HIGH PLAINS AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S
   THIS AFTN.  APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VIA 50S DEWPOINTS HAS
   ADVECTED NWWD INTO SERN NM AS THE DRYLINE RETREATED WWD OVER THE ERN
   PLAINS.  THE DRYLINE EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND IS
   LOCATED S AND SE OF A FRONTAL ZONE MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO THE NRN
   PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE -- EFFECTIVELY WEDGING THE REMAINING
   DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO ERN NM AROUND THE I-40 CORRIDOR.  

   THE CAP IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY ERODE INVOF THE DRYLINE/MOISTURE
   DISCONTINUITY AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /500-1500 J PER KG
   MLCAPE/ DEVELOPS.  VERY STEEP LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL ACT TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO PRIMARILY
   STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS.  LOCALIZED INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS SHOWN IN
   MULTIPLE RUNS OF DIVERSE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS.  THE
   MORE INTENSE MID-LEVEL CORES MAY YIELD A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33820408 35290356 35920180 36640066 35790041 34580155
               32940244 31550268 31490349 33820408 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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