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Mesoscale Discussion 642
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0548 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142248Z - 150045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
   MAY DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF S-CNTRL TX THIS EVENING. WW ISSUANCE
   IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONS ACROSS S-CNTRL TX INDICATE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS PER THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DRT...MLCAPE
   HAS INCREASED INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS ENHANCED MIDLEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
   PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD BRING THESE
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN DRT AND LRD
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND
   HRRR...GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY
   CLEAR IF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACTUALLY INITIATE ACROSS OR JUST W OF
   THE MCD AREA. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
   FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL...0-3 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT PER THE
   KDFX VWP MAY INITIALLY TEND TO LIMIT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD MODESTLY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ON THE
   SRN FRINGES OF DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   THIS MAY EVENTUALLY ENCOURAGE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM TO
   ORGANIZE AND POSE A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ONGOING...GENERALLY UNORGANIZED PULSE-SEVERE TYPE CONVECTION
   CONTINUES S OF SAN ANTONIO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE NO MORE THAN A
   HEAVY RAIN/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS TOO LOW TO SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THREAT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
   SUBSEQUENT COVERAGE ACROSS THE MCD AREA...A WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   28160021 29120078 29760166 30360086 30639974 30379852
               29729779 28959757 28609807 28169932 28160021 

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