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Mesoscale Discussion 642
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 172218Z - 172315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A SWD MOVING BOUNDARY
   AND MAY POSE ISOLATED THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   THIS EVENING. THE COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS MAY REMAIN LIMITED IN
   THE SHORT-TERM...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...INCREASING TOWERING CU/CB DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED
   WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HRS ALONG A SWD MOVING BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS
   LOCATED JUST S OF A LINE FROM CUT TO BEA AS OF 22Z. ADDITIONAL TSTMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER W OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...AND
   CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS THESE SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR
   AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

   CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY IS MOVING NWD TOWARDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THE POTENTIAL
   FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...ENHANCED BY THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000
   J/KG...WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN ANCHOR ALONG OR
   REMAIN S OF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE
   LOW 90S. WEAK BUT VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG
   MIDLEVEL WLYS /AS SAMPLED BY 19Z CRP RAOB/ IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. A BRIEF/WEAK
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORM INTERACTING
   FAVORABLY WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT OTHERWISE THIS THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN LIMITED.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 05/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...

   LAT...LON   28639779 28309760 27669781 27549964 27930014 28040007
               28129933 28319880 28639779 

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Page last modified: May 17, 2016
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