MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0123 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF DEEP S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 300623Z - 300800Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP SEWD
   ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD LRD BY 0800-0830Z.  A WW IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 0612Z...DRT/LAUGHLIN AFB RADAR DATA INDICATED A HYBRID HP
   SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO COMPLEX 60 NW LRD MOVING 305/25-30 KT.  THIS
   COMPLEX HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO MOVE MORE LEFTWARD WITH AN
   EXTRAPOLATED MOTION TAKING IT TO NEAR LRD BETWEEN 0800-0830Z.  WHILE
   INFLOW AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
   TO LOWER 70S...30/00Z BRO SOUNDING AND CURRENT RUC PROXIMITY
   SOUNDING DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIAL CAP CENTERED IN
   THE 750-700 MB LAYER.  THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIKELY SUSTAINING THIS
   COMPLEX IS ROUGHLY 60-70 KT OF STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OWING TO THE
   PRESENCE OF A 30-40 KT SELY LLJ AND THE SELY STORM MOTION.  
   
   GIVEN THESE COMPETING FACTORS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
   FUTURE LONGEVITY AND ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS COMPLEX. 
   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
   WIDESPREAD EVENT APPEARS LOW.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/30/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   LAT...LON   28319992 28359927 27869892 27399866 26909852 26619896
               26809952 27960008 28319992