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Mesoscale Discussion 643
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0503 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
   IL/INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 212203Z - 212330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING
   ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY...AND PERHAPS FAR
   SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND
   SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO CONGEAL/ORGANIZE WITHIN
   A CORRIDOR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IL/SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH OTHER
   MORE ISOLATED /LIKELY INITIALLY ELEVATED/ ACTIVITY ALONG I-64 IN
   SOUTHERN IL. THE PRIMARY SCENARIO SHOULD BE THE CONTINUED
   ORGANIZED/FORWARD ACCELERATION OF AN EVOLVING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   INDIANA TO ALONG THE OH RIVER IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN KY/EXTREME
   SOUTHWEST OH. AIDED BY EXPANDING SURFACE COLD POOL /ALREADY EVIDENT
   ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA/...THESE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE/LIKELY
   ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN AIR MASS THAT IS WARM/RELATIVELY
   MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS
   SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN KY. LARGE HAIL
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE EVOLVING MCS
   /AND MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/...BUT DAMAGING
   WINDS MAY STEADILY BECOME A MORE PREVALENT CONCERN ACROSS KY THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING WITH THE ACCELERATING MCS/EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38468993 38578768 38588670 38858533 37828256 37348259
               37258467 37828759 37858880 38468993 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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