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Mesoscale Discussion 643
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...

   VALID 142328Z - 150100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 171...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
   AND NORTHERN PORTIONS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SHORT-RANGE  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK
   MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   THIS EVENING.  LLJ IS FORECAST TO RESPOND AND INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS AND THIS MAY ENCOURAGE AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER OF
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AFTER DARK.  LATEST RADAR
   DATA SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION FROM WEST OF MAF TO NEAR LBB.  AS THIS ACTIVITY INCREASES
   A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE WITH AN MCS POSSIBLE BY MID
   EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK.  LARGE HAIL IS THE
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.

   ..DARROW.. 05/14/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   30610357 33860313 33869999 30610053 30610357 

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