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Mesoscale Discussion 643
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0538 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180...

   VALID 172238Z - 180015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WATCH
   180...MAINTAINING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO...THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERAL HP SUPERCELL/MULTICELL STRUCTURES
   CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS
   EVENING...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED AT THE INTERSECTION OF A
   SOUTHWARD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY OVER
   CROCKETT COUNTY. A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PROPAGATION COMPONENT SHOULD
   FURTHER DRIVE THESE CELLS TOWARDS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX HILL
   COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THEY MOVE ALONG A SFC THETA-E
   AXIS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   LOW...BUT SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT /IN ADDITION TO CELLS
   ENCOUNTERING RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/ COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF
   TORNADO. LARGE HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT THOUGH...AS
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OVER 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FAVOR
   EFFICIENT HAIL GROWTH ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
   FOR A CELL OR TWO TO REACH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WATCH...AND A
   SMALL AREAL EXTENSION TO THE EAST COULD BE NECESSARY.

   ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WATCH 180...GREATER CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION /EXHIBITED BY LOW-LEVEL BILLOW STRUCTURES ON VISIBLE
   SATELLITE/ COULD KEEP CELLS MORE ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   HOWEVER...AS A CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
   CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...INCREASING DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IS
   POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH A PERSISTING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
   HAIL/STRONG WINDS.

   ..PICCA.. 05/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30960249 31230225 31550068 31189964 29929860 28739859
               28529909 28219960 28170011 29210080 29760149 29890203
               30960249 

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Page last modified: May 18, 2016
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