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Mesoscale Discussion 644
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND E-CNTRL CO...NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

   VALID 212217Z - 212315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING FROM EL PASO EWD TO CHEYENNE
   COUNTIES CO...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER OVER THE
   NEXT HR OR SO WITH A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL AFFECTING ADAMS AND
   ARAPAHOE COUNTIES. A NEW DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO
   ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIAL DMGG WIND THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS SHOW A RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELL IS
   MAINTAINING QUASI-DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS WITH EWD PROGRESSION E OF
   THE DEN METRO AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   OCCURRING SEWD OF THE PRIMARY STORM ALONG THE TRAILING COLD POOL.
   FARTHER S...STORMS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS E-CNTRL
   CO...ORIENTED GENERALLY WITHIN A W-E FASHION. THIS BROKEN LINE
   SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE/CONSOLIDATE WITH THE SUPERCELL AND
   TRANSITION PRIMARILY INTO A SVR WIND THREAT. MODERATELY MOIST ELY
   LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A PROPAGATING CLUSTER OR LINE
   DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING WW 165 AND 167. AS A RESULT...A NEW SVR TSTM
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED SOON WITH AFFECTED FORECAST
   OFFICES.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/21/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39110138 38680215 38400307 38360385 38800429 39470433
               39870409 40120381 40170307 39910182 39580129 39110138 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2014
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