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Mesoscale Discussion 645
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0933 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180...

   VALID 180233Z - 180400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH OCCASIONAL
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
   THE TX HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING. AS SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
   EVENING...WATCH 180 HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 06Z. ADDITIONALLY...THE
   WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EAST IN THE EWX CWA.

   DISCUSSION...IN RESPONSE TO A CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL DROPPING SOUTH
   ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...THUNDERSTORMS /SOME OCCASIONALLY
   SEVERE/ CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. RECENT KDFX VWP
   DATA STILL EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE
   OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. FURTHERMORE...
   ORGANIZING STORMS AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER /GENERALLY OVER
   BANDERA...AND MEDINA COUNTIES/ ALSO ARE DISPLAYING BROAD MID-LEVEL
   ROTATION. DESPITE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING...FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE AND
   AN EML PLUME ALOFT ARE MAINTAINING A CORRIDOR OF AROUND 2000-2500
   J/KG MLCAPE. AS A RESULT...A LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG-WIND
   THREAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN
   MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THEREFORE...THE WATCH HAS BOTH
   BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 06Z AND EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.

   ..PICCA.. 05/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29370092 29790170 30040176 30509970 30389843 29849814
               28709835 28479903 28249961 28250022 28450036 28390029
               29370092 

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Page last modified: May 18, 2016
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