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Mesoscale Discussion 645
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0651 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151151Z - 151245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL
   CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF S TX. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
   ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED...LIKELY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORM OVER DIMMIT
   AND LA SALLE COUNTIES IN SOUTH TX WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY SEWD
   THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL CELLS WERE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
   MAIN STORM...AND STORM MERGERS MAY OCCUR...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
   UPSCALE GROWTH. GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ADEQUATE
   INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR /ROUGHLY 30-35
   KT/...EXPECT THAT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
   PERIODS OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONG WIND
   THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED SHOULD A COLD POOL DEVELOP AND STORM
   CHARACTERISTICS TAKE ON MORE OF A BOWING STRUCTURE. IT IS UNCLEAR IF
   CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS WAY...BUT SOME HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK/BRIEF
   TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE SHOULD STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED LATER
   THIS MORNING WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING. REGIONAL VWP/S INDICATE
   CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES NEAR
   250 M2/S2. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT IMMEDIATELY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. SINCE THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE ADDED
   TO THE 13Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 05/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28219998 28619952 28779915 28859840 28659777 28449733
               28039709 27659716 26939754 26649824 26639910 27259968
               27829993 28219998 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2015
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