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Mesoscale Discussion 646
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 180455Z - 180600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
   ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX. WW 180 WILL EXPIRE AT 06Z...AND RADAR
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE NEW WW.

   DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL CLUSTER OVER THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA
   CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS PER RECENT RADAR TRENDS...ALTHOUGH THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
   THESE THREATS APPEARS TO HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST HR.
   THIS CLUSTER IS PROGRESSING IN A GENERAL ESEWD DIRECTION...AND WILL
   CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FEED OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE ENE. THE
   SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THIS CLUSTER /ESTIMATED AROUND 20 KT/ SUGGESTS
   THE THREAT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TOWARDS THE ERN EDGE OF WW 180 BY 06Z.

   OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE ALSO
   EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY DOWNSHEAR FROM THIS
   CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
   THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
   DIURNAL COOLING...SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE RELATIVELY CONFINED AND
   MARGINAL SVR THREAT OVERNIGHT...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW ISSUANCE AFTER WW 180 EXPIRES AT 06Z.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 05/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28649762 28200028 28870072 29180100 29410088 29760056
               29729984 29969896 30099823 30089774 30039733 29519723
               28649762 

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Page last modified: May 18, 2016
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