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Mesoscale Discussion 646
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...SERN WY AND NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 151814Z - 152015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM NERN CO
   INTO WRN NEB AND SERN WY. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WIND AND FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM S SFC
   LOW IN NERN CO THROUGH SWRN NEB AND EWD THROUGH SERN NEB. DRYLINE
   EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH ERN CO. MORNING CONVECTION HAS
   DISSIPATED...AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF WARM FRONT
   OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. THUS STRONG DIABATIC WARMING WILL RESULT
   IN DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY
   IN THE MID 50S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE. MLCAPE
   SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. TRENDS IN SATELLITE
   IMAGERY INDICATE BELT OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A NEWD EJECTING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY SPREADING THROUGH NCNTRL CO AND SCNTRL
   WY. AS THIS FORCING INTERACTS WITH DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
   LAYER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER NERN CO THEN
   FARTHER NEWD ALONG DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT. DEEP SHEAR PROFILES FROM
   35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40410301 40730464 41940493 42710316 42460147 41720048
               40810098 40410301 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2015
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