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Mesoscale Discussion 647
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MO...W-CENTRAL IL...EXTREME SRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151913Z - 152115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVERALL...THE SEVERE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS WERE STRENGTHENING ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM
   NWRN THROUGH CENTRAL MO...WITH ADDITIONAL/MORE WIDELY SCTD TSTMS EWD
   INTO W-CENTRAL IL. DESPITE HIGH-LEVEL/TSTM ANVIL
   CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEWD-MOVING STORMS CONTINUE
   TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80. THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER 60S
   DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN AFTN MLCAPE AVERAGING 1500-2000 J/KG WITH
   LITTLE CINH EVIDENT. MODESTLY STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIKELY
   ENHANCED BY AN MCV APPROACHING NWRN MO...WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR FOR MAINLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
   LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. ISOLATED MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.

   THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH
   IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 05/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38328946 38599182 38959350 39309435 39539493 39869542
               40189566 40649566 41079502 40949318 40629177 40309099
               39778943 39038889 38328946 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2015
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