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Mesoscale Discussion 647
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180758Z - 181030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO OR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OVER FAR SRN FL.

   DISCUSSION...A SW-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF WEAK CONFLUENCE IN THE
   LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
   PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A FEW
   PERSISTENT WEAK SUPERCELLS OVER SRN FL EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AIR
   MASS IS PLENTY UNSTABLE FOR SFC-BASED PARCELS GIVEN MID 70S F
   DEWPOINTS...WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW AND VEERING WINDS WITH
   HEIGHT BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. INDEED...RADAR SHOWS WEAK
   ROTATION IS SOME OF THESE CELLS OVER BROWARD AND COLLIER COUNTIES.

   THE WEAK SHEAR/POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A
   HAIL THREAT...BUT PERIODIC UPTICKS IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH COULD RESULT
   IN BRIEF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS RESULTING IN EITHER A WEAK TORNADO
   OR STRONG WIND GUST. THE THREAT SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS AS
   THE UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD...WITH REDUCED LIFT IN ITS
   WAKE.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...

   LAT...LON   26008194 26827992 26157986 25628007 25468129 25458174
               25618197 25828212 26008194 

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Page last modified: May 18, 2016
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