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Mesoscale Discussion 648
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181709Z - 181845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY A SMALL
   CLUSTER ABOUT TO CROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE INTO FAR SOUTHERN WEBB
   AND NORTHERN ZAPATA COUNTIES. LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE RISK
   WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL FORMED SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO AND HAS
   EXHIBITED STORM-SCALE BOWING STRUCTURE ON APPROACH TO THE RIO
   GRANDE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
   FAR SOUTHERN ZAPATA INTO KENEDY COUNTY AS OF 17Z. UNCERTAINTIES DO
   EXIST IN THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS BUOYANCY IN THE WAKE OF
   THE CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED 12Z BROWNSVILLE RAOB. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
   CORPUS CHRISTI RAOB SAMPLED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
   MODEST MUCAPE. MODERATE SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER
   MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTER INTO PARTS OF
   DEEP SOUTH TX.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27449956 27499904 27459858 27289812 26969799 26749815
               26669900 26779937 27449956 

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Page last modified: May 18, 2016
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