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Mesoscale Discussion 648
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND SERN TX COASTAL AREA AND DEEP S TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151941Z - 152145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO
   MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS...HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO AS THEY MOVE
   THROUGH THE CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX COASTAL AREA AS WELL AS DEEP S TX
   THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
   A WW.

   DISCUSSION...A LINEAR MCS EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL TX COAST NEAR
   VICTORIA SWWD TO JUST NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
   LINE HAS A BROAD ROTATING COMMA HEAD AND IS MOVING EWD AT 20-25 KT.
   THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A WEAK CAP SO
   STORMS WITHIN NRN PART OF LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE
   ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE
   WEAK OVER THE CNTRL TX COASTAL AREA SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. OVER
   SRN TX WIND PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH AROUND 30 KT 0-6 KM
   SHEAR...AND SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   AHEAD OF THE LINE PROMOTING NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26129807 27009712 27489684 28319664 28899664 29419648
               29639538 29209506 27629622 25979719 26129807 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2015
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