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Mesoscale Discussion 648
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0827 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF KY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHERN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169...

   VALID 220127Z - 220300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 169 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z...WITH THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN WELL-ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KY.

   DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR/FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO
   STEADILY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL KY AS OF
   0115Z...WITH SOME EMBEDDED ELEMENTS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD AS FAST AS
   50+ KT. A 50 KT WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT LEXINGTON AT AROUND 0035Z.
   THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE
   SHORT-TERM...WITH THE MCS-PRECEDING AIR MASS REMAINING MODERATE
   INSTABILITY /1500-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
   CORRIDOR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL KY. GIVEN FORWARD MOMENTUM AND EXISTING
   COLD POOL ORGANIZATION...AN APPRECIABLE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH 02Z-03Z ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
   OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KY INCLUDING THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND AREAS
   SUCH AS BEREA...SOMERSET AND LONDON. 

   ELSEWHERE...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
   IMMEDIATE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS/ASSOCIATED COLD
   POOL...MEANINGFUL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
   FARTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN KY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA
   UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CAPPING.

   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   38808551 38328503 38148452 38208395 37968300 37198281
               36668330 36698536 37258685 37738770 38068817 38538657
               38788605 38808551 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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