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Mesoscale Discussion 649
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
   TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181949Z - 182215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   WILL MOVE INTO/DEVELOP OVER THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   HOWEVER THE RELATIVELY CONFINED AREA OF THE THREAT WILL PROBABLY
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SEASONABLY STRONG
   MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   IMPINGING ON A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MCD
   AREA...THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEATING THROUGHOUT
   THE MORNING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-40S...LIKELY WELL MIXED
   THROUGHOUT A 1-1.5-KM DEEP PBL...AND MODERATELY STEEP 700-500 MB
   LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM ARE PRODUCING MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000
   J/KG PER MODIFIED 18Z EL PASO SOUNDING AND RAP ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS.
   AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   AND A STRONG 500-300 MB WESTERLY JET STREAK NOW OVERSPREADING THE
   AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND MORE PERSISTENTLY ROTATING STORMS. 
   EVAPORATIVE COOLING/MELTING IN THE DEEP WELL-MIXED PBL COULD SUPPORT
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.  COVERAGE OF SEVERE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THAT NEEDED FOR A WEATHER
   WATCH...BUT THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF MORE
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS SPREAD EAST
   THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

   ..CONIGLIO/GOSS.. 05/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31780781 31780818 31320819 31350878 31710883 32070890
               32430895 32930901 33270883 33230775 33110722 32870668
               32250594 31930566 31600549 31210549 31160574 31330592
               31410603 31480622 31740638 31770644 31780664 31780819
               31780781 

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Page last modified: May 18, 2016
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