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Mesoscale Discussion 649
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1049 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KS/FAR SOUTHERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...

   VALID 220349Z - 220515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING HAIL/WIND WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST KS...WITH SEVERE RISK POTENTIALLY
   EXPANDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS/FAR SOUTHERN NEB
   OVERNIGHT. SEVERE TSTM WATCH 170 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z. MONITORING
   ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NORTH KS FOR A POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS...CENTERED NEAR I-70 IN
   GOVE/SHERIDAN COUNTIES AS OF 0340Z. NEAR THE CREST OF THE UPPER
   RIDGE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED TO THE NORTH
   OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KS SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTENANCE OF THIS
   MCS ACROSS NORTH KS/FAR SOUTHERN NEB OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED BOUTS OF
   LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON
   THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A RESERVOIR OF
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR. GIVEN MCV/ASYMMETRIC-MCS CHARACTERISTICS IN
   THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN
   A CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM PRIOR TO ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER
   COOLING. SUCH A RISK IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A RECENT 71 MPH MEASURED GUST
   FROM ANGELUS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY KS AS OF 322Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH MAINLY ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF NORTH KS.

   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39360115 40110125 40309872 39839759 39009822 38560054
               39150088 39360115 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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