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Mesoscale Discussion 649
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0649
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM THROUGH WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152036Z - 152200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN NM INTO WRN TX THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
   SUPPORTIVE OF A WW AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF ENHANCED CUMULUS
   FORMING ALONG LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN TX WHERE DIABATIC WARMING HAS
   DESTABILIZED THE SFC LAYER. MLCAPE IS LIMITED TO AROUND 1000-1500
   J/KG DUE TO MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER WRN TX TO 40S OVER ERN NM. WV IMAGERY AND
   POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ROBUST UPDRAFT
   DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ENTRAINMENT. MOREOVER...STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR
   REMAINS WEST OF AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY.
   NEVERTHELESS...LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES OF ANY
   STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32810343 33810414 35240419 36080279 36120112 35240080
               33890132 31760193 31600301 32810343 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2015
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