MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN OK...SERN
   KS...SWRN/S-CENTRAL MO...NWRN/N-CENTRAL AR.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219...
   
   VALID 010800Z - 011000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219
   CONTINUES.
   
   AS OF 07Z...SLOW-MOVING SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL MO
   SWWD NEAR CNU-GAG LINE...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER NWRN OK AND
   TX PANHANDLE.  DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY --FROM NEAR FSM WNWWD
   THROUGH LOGAN COUNTY OK -- SHOULD DRIFT NWD.  CENTRAL OK SUPERCELL
   DISSIPATED IN WEAKLY CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT AS WARM SECTOR SBCINH
   BECAME TOO STG FOR STORM-SCALE FORCING TO OVERCOME.  WITH MOST
   FAVORABLE/ELEVATED LOW LEVEL LIFT FCST TO REMAIN N AND NE OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY AND NEAR FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER
   CENTRAL OK APPEARS VERY LOW...AND THIS AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM
   WW.
   
   EXISTING STG-SVR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER TRI-STATE REGION OF
   OK/KS/MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD NWRN AR...WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
   TO BACKBUILD TOWARD N-CENTRAL OK DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS AS VERY MOIST
   WRN BRANCH OF LLJ -- NOW EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS NW TX AND WRN OK --
   SUPPLIES FAVORABLY BUOYANT PARCELS WITH MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG. 
   35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION.  ALTHOUGH
   CONTAINING FAVORABLY MOIST AIR...ERN BRANCH OF LLJ WILL MAINTAIN
   SIGNIFICANT WLY COMPONENT THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS AND
   SHOULD VEER AN ADDITIONAL 10-20 DEG IN SOME AREAS.  SVR THREAT WILL
   BECOME MORE MRGL E OF WW ACROSS OZARKS AND TOWARD MS VALLEY...AS
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ELEVATED BUOYANCY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW EACH WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT.  VERY MOIST
   INFLOW LAYER...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ALSO
   WILL POSE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS INVOF
   KS/OK BORDER...LOCAL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/01/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35379403 35349489 35319618 35919663 36229697 36299802
               36759795 37019723 37169509 37409381 37399206 37049113
               36089126 35479338 35379403