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Mesoscale Discussion 650
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0546 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...EXTREME NERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 152246Z - 152345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE BLACK
   HILLS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGEST STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERAL WITH SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM
   NERN CO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/SERN WY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   SPREADING/DEVELOPING NORTH AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE BLACK HILLS SHORTLY.  STRONG WARM
   ADVECTION SHOULD DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF WW172 AND HAIL
   MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.  WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
   REMAIN FAIRLY COOL/STABLE...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ROOTED NEAR 850MB COULD
   ROTATE AND PERHAPS GENERATE HAIL.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE
   REQUIRED ACROSS THIS REGION IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 05/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44330410 44240097 43000047 43030391 44330410 

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