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Mesoscale Discussion 650
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NM / FAR W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182243Z - 182345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE RIO
   GRANDE IN S-CNTRL NM AND INTO FAR W TX FROM CHIHUAHUA.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC/MRMS MESH DATA SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELLS
   WITH SEVERE-HAIL SIGNATURES ACROSS S-CNTRL NM /CYCLONIC AND
   ANTICYCLONIC STORMS/ INDICATING HAIL RANGING FROM 1.0-2.0 INCHES IN
   DIAMETER.  WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE MOVING EWD ACROSS
   SWRN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BAND OF IMPLIED ASCENT
   EXTENDING SWD INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA/FAR W TX ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.  22Z
   SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SE-NW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
   THIS REGION WITH COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS LOCATED FARTHER E NEAR
   GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MTNS.   

   MODIFYING THE 18Z EPZ RAOB YIELDS AROUND 400 J/KG MLCAPE FOR CURRENT
   SURFACE CONDITIONS.  STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WILL
   SUPPORT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE
   RATE/WEAK BUOYANCY REGIME.  AS SUCH...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   HAZARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   29380359 29110420 31510654 31740778 32540769 32980587
               29380359 

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Page last modified: May 18, 2016
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