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Mesoscale Discussion 651
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191204Z - 191400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY DEVELOP
   THIS MORNING IN A W-E ORIENTED CORRIDOR FROM DIMMIT COUNTY EWD TO
   THE COAST. A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED DEPENDING ON STORM TRENDS OVER
   THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS CRP RADAR SHOW A WARM FRONT
   LIFTING NWD ACROSS SRN TX WITH 70S F DEWPOINTS TO THE S. STRONG
   VEERING WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS ARE ALSO PRESENT. LIFT FROM WARM
   ADVECTION ALONE HAD PREVIOUSLY FAILED TO SUSTAIN EARLIER CELLS
   ACROSS WEBB AND LASALLE COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL CORES WERE PRESENT.

   THE STORM OVER DIMMIT COUNTY APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY LIFT ALONG A SWD
   SURGE OF COOLER AIR...AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW WITH THE
   LARGER AREA OF STORMS. AS THIS STORM CONTINUES EWD...IT WILL
   ENCOUNTER STRONGER INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS
   COULD SUSTAIN IT WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO EITHER A LARGE
   FORWARD-TILTING CELL OR SMALL BOW CONTAINING HAIL AND PERHAPS
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28889979 29179877 29249789 29149674 28709648 28399661
               27749718 27889791 28049907 28149964 28189985 28470005
               28889979 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2016
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