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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 161...
VALID 160439Z - 160615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 161 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 161 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX. TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FROM
EARLIER...BUT DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...INTO NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE TSTM WATCH 162
OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE GENERALLY EITHER
MERGED AND/OR WANED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX...WITH A NOW
DOMINANT QUASI-LINEAR MODE AS OF 0430Z FROM THE DFW METRO
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ROUGHLY BETWEEN
BROWNWOOD AND TEMPLE/I-35. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DOES REMAIN STRONG PER
CENTRAL TX AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA SUCH AS GRK/EWX...WITH UPWARDS OF
40-55 KT AROUND 1 KM. HOWEVER...FACTORS SUCH AS INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER INHIBITION AND CONVECTIVE MODE IMPLY A DIMINISHED TORNADO
THREAT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF HAIL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN FROM PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX IN TORNADO WATCH
161...INTO NEWLY ISSUED WATCH 162 OVERNIGHT.
..GUYER.. 05/16/2013
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31129952 31599873 32069766 32819743 33059682 32969599
32119618 31849651 30909736 30959886 31129952
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