MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN OK...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN
   KS...SWRN/S-CENTRAL MO...NWRN/N-CENTRAL AR.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219...
   
   VALID 011108Z - 011215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219
   CONTINUES.
   
   CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SVR POTENTIAL MAY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR
   ADDITIONAL WW...AND THAT WW 219 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
   SCHEDULED.
   
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS INCREASING WHILE OVERALL ORGANIZATION MAY BE
   DECREASING....AT LEAST FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS IS OCCURRING AS
   SLIGHTLY VEERING LLJ RE-ALIGNS MORE PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF
   CONVECTION...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW TO
   1. COMPONENT OF FORWARD/SEWD MOTION OF TSTMS AND
   2. BACKBUILDING/DISCRETE PROPAGATION ON WRN END OF EXISTING NERN OK
   COMPLEX...WITH DEVELOPMENT GRADUALLY FILLING WNWWD TOWARD AREAS
   BETWEEN P28-PNC.
   
   LATTER PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AND PERHAPS FOR ANOTHER
   FEW HOURS AFTERWARD...THEN SHIFT SWD OVER N-CENTRAL/NERN OK.  THIS
   IS BASED ON STRONG CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL...SREF AND
   HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PACKAGES FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP EVOLUTION. 
   ACTIVITY ACROSS WW AREA APPEARS ELEVATED BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS AND
   LATEST SFC DATA.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ARE ROOTED JUST
   AGL IN SOME AREAS DUE TO NWD MOVEMENT OF DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   TOWARD SWD-DRIFTING COLD FRONTAL ZONE...AND RESULTANT HIGH THETAE OF
   SFC AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F.  PENETRATION OF STG-SVR
   DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  HAIL REMAINS
   POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THREAT WOULD BE MARGINAL FOR MORE
   LINEAR/SEGMENTED STRUCTURES AS OPPOSED TO WELL-ORGANIZED/DISCRETE
   STORMS.  MAIN RISK MAY BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LOCALLY NEAR 2
   INCHES/HOUR...GIVEN CONTINUED STG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN INFLOW
   LAYER...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND PROPAGATIONALLY-FOCUSED
   TRAINING AND MERGING OF EFFICIENT PRECIP-PRODUCING TSTMS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/01/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   35379403 35169498 35319618 35919663 36229697 36289805
               37149896 37149727 37139521 37069406 36799334 36649288
               36039258 35499332 35379403