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Mesoscale Discussion 652
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0640 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152340Z - 160145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...INCLUDING A LOW TORNADO
   THREAT...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. DUE TO THE ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 2330Z DEPICTS
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
   MIDWEST. THE AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MO HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION...AS SFC TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
   LOWER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. 23Z RAP
   MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE IS IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
   MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM. THE VWP FROM KEAX
   DOES SHOW SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT FROM 0-3KM...AND EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR RANGES FROM AROUND 25 KT ACROSS S-CNTRL MO...TO 40 KT ACROSS
   N-CNTRL MO CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH. 

   THIS MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH
   AN ASSOCIATED ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WIND RISK FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. ONE SUCH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH A MESOCYCLONE
   AND SOME LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WAS MOVING FROM SALINE INTO HOWARD
   COUNTY MO. THIS SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE
   COMPLETELY RULED OUT. REGARDLESS...THE ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   36699297 36789419 38309392 39659408 39929324 40099176
               38309099 36879176 36699297 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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