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Mesoscale Discussion 652
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA INTO CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 220753Z - 220930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WW 169 IS BEING EXTENDING LOCALLY IN TIME AND AREA ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  THE ISSUANCE
   OF A NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED
   TO WEAKEN BY DAYBREAK.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON THE
   NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER RIDGING...FLATTENED BY LARGER-SCALE
   UPPER TROUGHING NOW DIGGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO
   VALLEY REGION.  THIS IS WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE
   CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB
   FLOW...CURRENTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF EVANSVILLE IN INTO THE LOUISVILLE
   KY AREA.  

   THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY APPEARS ROOTED ABOVE A BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   MASS IMPACTED CONSIDERABLY BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND THE
   TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY ADVANCE INTO A
   PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR ENVIRONMENT...TOWARD THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   HAIL...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAY CONTINUE IN
   STRONGER STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
   KENTUCKY ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE BEEN
   SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
   THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY DAYBREAK...AND THIS
   SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING OF LINGERING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   38618740 38698676 38298533 38158399 37948318 36998395
               36948526 38138728 38618740 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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