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Mesoscale Discussion 653
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1049 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...CNTRL/SRN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221549Z - 221815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A MODERATELY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
   INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   DISCUSSION...1-MIN RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
   DEEPENING CU AND SMALL CBS FORMING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
   STRETCHING FROM AROUND 25 S ROC TO ZZV...WITH THE GREATEST CLUMPING
   NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER. 12Z WRF-NSSL AND RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE
   CONSISTENT IN SIMULATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EMANATING
   E/NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS QUITE PROBABLE GIVEN
   ROBUST HEATING EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE LIKELY
   REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
   REMAIN WEAK AND GENERALLY WLY. BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH
   SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR /N OF THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
   CENTERED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS/ WILL FAVOR
   SPLITTING STORMS AND WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   42637782 43097663 43397567 43197475 42657418 41517447
               40087595 39937727 40007823 40197892 40537937 41037955
               41677915 42637782 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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