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Mesoscale Discussion 653
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0805 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN NM AND SERN CO...SWRN KS...MUCH OF THE
   TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND FAR WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 160105Z - 160330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS
   HIGH-BASED CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/ERN
   NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET
   MAXIMUM ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM A
   SFC CENTERED OVER NERN CO ACROSS WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
   FURTHER W...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NM.

   SEVERAL UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAVE OCCURRED
   OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE DRYLINE. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   EVENTUALLY FORM ON THE DRYLINE...THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR
   ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NM AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
   FRONT TO MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA AND DDC SHOW
   MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AMIDST MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 

   GENERALLY SLY WINDS AT THE SFC VEER AND STRENGTHEN WITH HEIGHT TO
   SWLY ACROSS THE MCD AREA...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS OR
   MULTIPLE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WHILE NOT
   IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33200273 33610324 35750306 36680257 37530204 37760073
               37789983 36959955 34919978 33580045 33200273 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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