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Mesoscale Discussion 654
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0654
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192047Z - 192215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO COMPOSITE COLD
   FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BEING SHUNTED OFFSHORE BY ABOUT 23Z. LARGE
   HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD. SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE RISK
   SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED JUST AHEAD
   OF THE COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT STRETCHED FROM
   35 WNW MFE TO 60 S CRP AS OF 2030Z. AIR MASS S OF THIS COMPOSITE
   BOUNDARY IS LIKELY STRONGLY UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 17Z CRP RAOB WITH
   LOWER 90S TEMPERATURES AND 73-75 DEG F DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE. A
   VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A  SUPERCELL
   OR TWO WITH A MAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   BUOYANCY. THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY SUGGESTS
   THIS RISK SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26689847 26969754 26719720 26129715 25849714 25819814
               26079854 26689847 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2016
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