Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 655
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 655 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0655
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN LA AND SRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192242Z - 200015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SERN LA AND SRN MS FOR THE
   NEXT COUPLE HRS. THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL
   AND SHORT-DURATION IN NATURE TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
   ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR I-10
   ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA. THIS IS OCCURRING DOWNSHEAR FROM THE NRN
   FLANK OF A MCS APPROACHING SWRN LA...AND SUFFICIENT
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. MORE RECENT RADAR
   TRENDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL APPROACHING SVR LIMITS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF 7-7.5 C/KM
   LAPSE RATES NOTED IN MORNING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   WEAK /PER LIX AND LCH VWP/...BUT STRONGER FLOW ABOVE 2 KM AGL IS
   YIELDING SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES /30-40 KT/ TO
   MAINTAIN ORGANIZED STORMS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
   GIVEN THE DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT HAS
   OCCURRED...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED. BOTH THE
   HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...BEFORE
   GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 05/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31098933 30628960 30309022 30159084 30089133 30239168
               30629182 30839150 31149035 31398925 31098933 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 20, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities