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Mesoscale Discussion 655
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0655
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL KS AND SCNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 160543Z - 160715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WCNTRL KS AND
   SCNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT...WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW OVER ERN CO
   WITH SLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. A NEARLY
   CONTINUOUS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS WCNTRL KS AND
   IN SCNTRL NEB ALONG A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEVELOPMENT IS
   BEING ENHANCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE
   DAY. SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE OF STORMS ARE GENERALLY
   IN THE LOWER 60S F...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INCLUDING
   THE HRRR GRADUALLY MOVE THIS LINE ENEWD ACROSS AN AIRMASS WHERE
   WSR-88D VWPS FROM DODGE CITY KS TO HASTINGS NEB SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF
   0-6 KM SHEAR. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF
   A 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET HELPING TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHEAR.
   WHILE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM...ORGANIZATION OF
   THE MORE INTENSE ELEMENTS INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE COULD MAKE
   CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. 
   ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY.

   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37099976 37050055 37270083 37560088 38630051 39530029
               40120008 40689992 41259956 41419914 41399865 41119819
               40589813 39449838 37579908 37099976 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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