Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 655
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 655 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0655
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND NERN NM / SERN CO / WRN TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 221732Z - 221900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
   DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HRS ACROSS THE NM ERN PLAINS NWD INTO SERN CO. 
   A SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL LIKELY ENSUE WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS...IN ADDITION TO A LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL RISK.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS
   PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE RATON
   RIDGE.  A SEPARATE AREA OF LIKELY BLOSSOMING ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
   OVER E-CNTRL NM.  A MERIDIONAL-ORIENTED UPPER SPEED MAX OVER WRN NM
   AND A DESTABILIZING AIRMASS UNDERGOING STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY
   LEAD TO CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
   BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH UPPER 40S-UPPER 50S
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS YIELDS MODERATE BUOYANCY /1000-2000 J PER
   KG MLCAPE/ AND THE REMOVAL OF APPRECIABLE REMAINING CINH SHOULD
   OCCUR BY 18-19Z AS TEMPS WARM TO THE LOWER 80S DEG F OVER NM. 
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /30 KT/ OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA WILL SERVE TO ORGANIZE STORMS.  SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT WILL LIKELY
   MAXIMIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHEN COLD
   POOLS BECOME MATURE AND HELP FOCUS SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN A STEEP
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34400495 36380540 38320505 38630422 38230334 37550305
               34910249 34010279 33910391 34400495 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 22, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities