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Mesoscale Discussion 656
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0132 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...

   VALID 160632Z - 160800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS. AS A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE ERN PART
   OF WW 174...PARTS OF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CLEARED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW IN ERN CO
   WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES
   WHERE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE LOCATED. A NEARLY
   CONTINUOUS LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING JUST TO THE WEST OF AN AXIS OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500
   J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW STRONG WIND
   FIELDS AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 3
   KM...CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. AS THE LINE OF STORMS
   MOVES ENEWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL
   BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT MAY
   OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLES WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
   HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ELEMENTS AND ISOLATED
   WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH SHORT BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   32990029 33230135 34130173 34940189 35910144 36960085
               37080030 36869989 36189972 33529985 32990029 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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