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Mesoscale Discussion 656
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS / SERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221807Z - 221930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE MULTICELLULAR
   STORMS WILL POSE AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW
   INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS --ALBEIT MORE RELAXED THAN YESTERDAY--
   AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DCVZ.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 18Z SHOW
   DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND THE BACKED
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROBABLY OFFSET APPRECIABLE DECLINE/MIXING OF
   DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING ON THE E SLOPES OF
   THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN WY HAS FOSTERED SCATTERED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER E OF THE MTNS
   CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE AND THIS IS RESULTING IN
   INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS MODEST /GENERALLY AOB 15 KT PER MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS/ UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...BUT MODERATE
   INSTABILITY PROMOTE THE STRONGER STORMS TO POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLD
   WIND/HAIL THREAT DURING THE 19Z-01Z TIMEFRAME.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   39440558 41060573 41670650 42450656 42950571 42710455
               41400394 39740365 39110418 39020510 39440558 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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