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Mesoscale Discussion 656
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA COAST

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 200053Z - 200200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...VIGOROUS QLCS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND ASSOCIATED BOWING
   SEGMENT WILL LIKELY MOVE ASHORE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA
   RIVER AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EWD TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE AN UPGRADE
   TO 15-PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES AND CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
   01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS LOCATED FROM 25 W OF LFT SWD TO 120 MI SSW 7R4
   IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS IS PROGRESSING ENEWD AROUND 35 KT.  THE
   AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED AS VERY
   MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS /LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ ALONG AND S OF A
   MARITIME/EFFECTIVE FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR.  AN AN
   UPPER TROUGH OVER OK WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARDS THE OZARKS THIS
   EVENING...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES WILL OVERSPREAD SERN LA AS A RESULT.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH
   THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE ISOLD WIND DAMAGE VIA 50-65 MPH GUSTS AND
   PERHAPS A MESOVORTEX OR TWO CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29559211 29919183 30038939 29438891 28828915 28799186
               29559211 

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Page last modified: May 20, 2016
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