MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AR/FAR SOUTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KY/WESTERN
   TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 012021Z - 012115Z
   
   AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN AR/FAR
   SOUTHERN MO INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF TN/KY. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   APPEARS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES GRADUAL SE MOVING SYNOPTIC COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING SW-NE FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND
   SOUTHERN IL. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
   TO MARKEDLY DESTABILIZE/RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY
   CONVECTION...AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MORE CONTEMPORARY MCS/OUTFLOW
   ACROSS TN. OVERALL...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEVELOP
   EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITHIN A WEAKLY
   CAPPED/UNSTABLE/MODIFIED OUTFLOW REGIME...WITH LARGE SCALE UPLIFT
   AIDED BY THE EASTWARD TRANSITIONING CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX
   ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
   MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
   FLOW...WITH MCV ENHANCED 40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS IMPLIED PER CONWAY MO
   PROFILER DATA...WILL FAVOR WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
   SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. IF INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   CONTINUE...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/01/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   36899456 36899282 37058967 36368802 35398847 34979042
               35429375 36899456