Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 657
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 657 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N-CNTRL OK...S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161555Z - 161730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
   ARE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WRN/NRN OK.
   THE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
   DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE SHORT-TERM
   CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER OVER THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE IS MOVING NEWD AT AROUND 30 MPH....BUT IT IS STILL
   UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS CLUSTER WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ARE
   ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 70S AMIDST A MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
   CONVECTION WILL BECOME SFC-BASED AND MOVE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ORIGINATING FROM MORNING CONVECTION...IN WHICH CASE A THREAT FOR A
   TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE. VWP DATA FROM VNX APPEAR TO
   SAMPLE THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AND
   SHOWS AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR A SUPERCELL/TORNADO
   THREAT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT IS STILL LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE THIS
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN
   PLAINS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WW/S IS LIKELY TO
   INCREASE.

   ..ROGERS/DIAL.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37409585 36399632 35659782 35169964 35620005 35989972
               36759828 37609750 38179651 38079580 37409585 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities