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Mesoscale Discussion 657
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / MOBILE BAY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183...

   VALID 200322Z - 200445Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS SERN LA AND PROBABLY ACROSS COASTAL MS AND MOBILE BAY.  A
   FAVORABLE ZONE FOR MESOVORTEXGENESIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE REALIZED
   ALONG THE EFFECTIVE FRONT FROM NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN EASTWARD
   ALONG THE MS GULF COAST.  A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED
   TO BE CONSIDERED BY 0400-0430Z FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MS AND SWRN AL.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SEVERE QLCS WITH A NOTABLE NRN
   BOOK-END VORTEX 20 MI SW BTR.  A WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE FRONT
   /ANALYZED VIA DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND STREAMLINES/ IS LOCATED FROM
   NEAR THE WESTSIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN EWD ALONG THE MS GULF COAST
   INTO THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY.  ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONFLUENCE AND A MESOSCALE RIBBON OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY MAY BE
   OCCASIONALLY TILTED INTO THE VERTICAL AND STRETCHED---LEADING TO
   INTERMITTENT MESOVORTEXGENESIS.  THE KLIX VAD DATA HAS CHANGED
   CONSIDERABLY THE LAST 2 HOURS WITH STRENGTHENING E TO SELY FLOW IN
   THE LOWEST 1 KM.  THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
   A CONTINUATION OF THE QLCS INTO SRN MS AND SWRN AL DURING THE LATE
   EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ..SMITH.. 05/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30639119 31019013 30998853 30788819 28888855 28609102
               30639119 

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Page last modified: May 20, 2016
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