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Mesoscale Discussion 657
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF KY/TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221909Z - 222115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KY ALONG A
   SWD-SAGGING COLD FRONT AND MOVE E/SEWD INTO TN THIS EVENING.
   ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE PROBABLE.

   DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR HTS TO CGI...WITH
   INCREASING CU/SMALL CBS FORMING ALONG IT NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
   OH/MS RIVERS INTO WRN KY. RECENT HRRR RUNS AND 12Z WRF-NSSL ARE
   CONSISTENT IN SIMULATING CONVECTION EMANATING E/NEWD ACROSS THE BULK
   OF KY/TN. WITH RICHEST SURFACE DEW POINTS /FROM UPPER 60S TO LOWER
   70S/ LOCATED NEAR THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT...AIR MASS IS LIKELY
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. NEARLY ALL BUOYANCY
   IS PROBABLY RELEGATED TO THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILE GIVEN A WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN MORNING RAOBS AND FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS NEAR 700 MB. ON THE FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
   WLYS...SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELL UPDRAFTS.
   BUT GIVEN PREDOMINATELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WLYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
   LITTLE SPEED SHEAR FROM THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS...HODOGRAPHS WILL
   GENERALLY REMAIN SMALL. STILL...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS SHOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37768693 37678558 37428391 37108313 36608294 35908339
               35598400 35498529 35848724 36218812 36738891 37098877
               37458830 37768693 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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