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Mesoscale Discussion 658
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN TX PANHANDLE / NWRN AND NRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221922Z - 222115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 1-3
   HRS.  A LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY
   THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO
   NWRN OK HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ALONG AND S OF
   AN OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.  VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A GROWING CU FIELD
   WITHIN THIS ZONE AND A LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS RECENTLY DETECTED AROUND
   1910Z IN THE NERN TX PANHANDLE.  MODIFYING THE 12Z OUN RAOB FOR
   EXISTING SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA IMPLIES ANY
   SUBSTANTIAL CINH HAS LARGELY BEEN REMOVED THROUGH SURFACE HEATING. 
   UPWARDS OF 1500-2000 MLCAPE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
   RESULT IN A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUST/LARGE HAIL RISK.  IN ADDITION
   TO THE EXPECTED ISOLD STORM COVERAGE...MODEST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING MULTICELLS AND THESE
   FACTORS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED/CONCENTRATED SEVERE
   THREAT.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35360048 34710105 34640147 34840185 35210177 36110078
               36929840 36909781 36759762 36509771 35849928 35360048 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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