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Mesoscale Discussion 658
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE...TX SOUTH PLAINS...W-CNTRL
   TX...SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 161657Z - 161900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS INTO W-CNTRL TX AND SWRN
   OK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL INCREASE...AND
   A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   DISCUSSION...THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
   THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND S
   PLAINS INTO W-CNTRL TX. THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT APPEARS TO BE DEMARCATED BY CONVECTION OVER NERN NM /E OF
   LVS/...BUT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW ADDITIONAL AREAS OF TSTM
   INITIATION OCCURRING W OF LBB ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...WITH ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REINFORCED BY MORE RECENT
   CONVECTION DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. MID-LEVEL CONVECTION
   WAS MORE PREVALENT FARTHER S TOWARDS BPG...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
   INTO SFC-BASED TSTMS. 

   VERY RICH MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST STEEPENING MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED BY 12Z MAF SOUNDING/ SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE
   VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...AMIDST AMPLE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. A CONSOLIDATING DRYLINE
   WILL SHIFT THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT INTO CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS INTO NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AS WELL...AS THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE ALIGNED ACROSS N TX INTO CNTRL OK.
   HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD STILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED
   DISCRETE SUPERCELL GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW LCLS...AND ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOUNDARY
   INTERACTION. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW...WHICH WILL
   PROBABLY BE ISSUED BEFORE 19Z.

   ..ROGERS/DIAL.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31470082 32120139 34010239 35080208 35350077 35469963
               34879874 32459899 31719970 31470082 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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