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Mesoscale Discussion 659
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NM / SWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221951Z - 222045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE
   WIND GUST THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP.

   DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER OVER THE TRANSPECOS
   RIVER VALLEY/PERMIAN BASIN SO FAR TODAY HAS RETARDED SURFACE TEMPS
   /UPPER 70S OVER SERN NM AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER BIG BEND
   NAT/L PARK AS OF 1945Z/.  DESPITE RELATIVELY TEMPERED MID-AFTERNOON
   TEMPS...POCKETS OF SUNSHINE AND GREATER HEATING WILL FURTHER WEAKEN
   THE CAP.  OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL PROBABLY INITIALLY FOCUS
   AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER SWRN
   TX WILL SERVE TO HELP THE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
   INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SUPPORT A MIX OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
   AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH THE STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS.  STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE
   PROMOTION OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.  A FEW OF THE DEEPER/STRONGER
   CORES WILL PROBABLY YIELD A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   28940396 30560425 31740485 32600496 33530311 29730180
               29610258 28880295 28940396 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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