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Mesoscale Discussion 659
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...OK/TX PANHANDLES...SWRN KS...EXTREME SERN
   CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161701Z - 161830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND. A TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WW
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

   DISCUSSION...A POWERFUL VORT MAX IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS
   NM...WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-UPPER JET BEGINNING TO EMERGE
   INTO THE W TX/TX PANHANDLE REGION. EARLIER ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
   THE TX PANHANDLE IS LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH CLEARING
   SKIES NOTED FROM NERN NM INTO FAR SW KS. WHILE THE OUTFLOW FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION WILL IMPEDE GREATER MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE
   REGION FOR AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY
   MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
   INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A RISK OF ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. 

   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
   INITIAL HAZARD...BUT SOME GREATER TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE LATER IN
   THE DAY AS INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS. WITH CU BEGINNING TO
   INCREASE ACROSS NERN NM INTO SERN CO AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED
   TO INCREASE WITH TIME...WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT
   1-2 HRS.

   ..DEAN/DIAL.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37160039 35490103 35130210 34080298 34460434 34920477
               35730468 36430448 37390270 37940205 38430141 38390086
               37160039 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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