MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0220 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN OHIO...CNTRL/ERN INDIANA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 161920Z - 162045Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SVR LEVELS THIS
   AFTERNOON...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
   
   DISCUSSION...BASED ON A MODIFIED 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB...MLCAPE
   VALUES ARE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST
   INSOLATION AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S BETWEEN A
   WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING WITHIN 1-2 COUNTIES OF INTERSTATE
   70 AND ONGOING CONVECTION/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS NEAR THE OHIO
   RIVER. WILMINGTON OHIO VWP DATA INDICATE THAT 20-30 KT OF WNWLY/NWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH DEEP SHEAR FOR ONE OR TWO
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVOLVING FROM THE SWELLING
   CUMULUS FIELD INVOF THE FRONT. WATER LOADING MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT
   POTENTIAL...WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
   NEARING SVR LEVELS...AND AN ISOLATED STORM MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO
   QUARTER SIZE. WITH ONLY WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/DEEP-LAYER FORCING
   FOR ASCENT...ANY SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/BRIEF.
   
   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 05/16/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...
   
   LAT...LON   39308505 39548599 39848655 40168659 40088560 39808465
               39828410 39668362 39388352 39218393 39308505