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Mesoscale Discussion 660
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...PARTS OF WV...MD...DE...VA...DC...NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 161735Z - 162000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON AS STORMS SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. DUE
   TO THE MARGINALITY OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1730Z...DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
   SWRN PA INTO NRN WV...WITH ANOTHER RECENTLY DEVELOPED STORM SOUTH OF
   ELM NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER. WHILE THE STORMS ACROSS SWRN PA ARE NOT
   WELL-ORGANIZED...A WEAK COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED IN THEIR
   WAKE...WHICH MAY ENHANCE A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK AS STORMS
   ADVANCE EWD INTO A WELL-MIXED...MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
   POSSIBLE...WITH 25-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
   OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING
   WIND. GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
   STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS...MAKING WW ISSUANCE UNLIKELY...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL UPSCALE GROWTH
   WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.

   ..DEAN/DIAL.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   38957997 40407975 41137936 41727909 41937794 42097701
               41997543 41577461 41117427 40447415 39347533 38547703
               38957997 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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