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Mesoscale Discussion 661
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222212Z - 222345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS...AND THIS SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND
   GENERALLY EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO THIS
   EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BARRING AN INCREASE IN
   ORGANIZATIONAL/INTENSITY TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE MAINLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS
   EXIST IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS IN
   VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME TOWERING CU IS NOTED IN
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO
   SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. ON THE
   SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES...CONTINUED
   CLUSTERING/GRADUAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN
   EASTWARD STORM PERSISTENCE/POSSIBLE EXPANSION INTO A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 1500+ J PER KG/ ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...ISOLATED BOUTS OF
   DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL MAY REMAIN A CONCERN. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT SIGNS OF INCREASING INTENSITY AND/OR
   ORGANIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37139699 38079582 38129419 38089243 37469212 37029302
               37019408 37099519 37039673 37139699 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2014
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