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Mesoscale Discussion 661
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161815Z - 161945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS
   NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEB...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INITIALLY BE
   LIMITED...BUT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A PERCOLATING CU FIELD
   ALONG A CONSOLIDATING DRYLINE ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS NWRN KS. TSTM
   INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS WITH CONVECTIVE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S...AND LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING
   GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
   LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 

   PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES/POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE SOMEWHAT
   MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH LOW 70S
   TEMPERATURES AMIDST LOW 50S DEWPOINTS. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN
   PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS N-CNTRL
   KS WHICH HAS LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AIDING IN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO YIELD
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THIS...ALONG WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL
   WIND PROFILES...MAY INITIALLY LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT...BEFORE
   INCREASING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER CNTRL KS.

   ..ROGERS/DIAL.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39589926 38349968 38310131 38520173 39580142 40330127
               40640022 40549961 39589926 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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