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Mesoscale Discussion 662
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD...SERN ND...SWRN MN...NWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161910Z - 162045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...AND A COUPLE
   OF TORNADOES. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE BY 19-20Z.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
   THIS AFTERNOON. A REMNANT MCV IS MOVING INTO SERN SD...WITH A SFC
   LOW LOCATED OVER NWRN SD AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN SD INTO
   CNTRL/SRN MN. BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE WAKE OF
   THE MCV ACROSS FAR SRN SD INTO NEB...WITH THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING
   THE DRIER AIRMASS FROM MOIST CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH RUNNING IN AN
   ARC FROM S-CNTRL/SERN SD INTO NERN NEB. SOME HEATING IS OCCURRING ON
   THE MOIST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH A RECENT ATTEMPT AT
   INITIATION IN LAKE COUNTY SD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
   ALONG BOTH OF THE BOUNDARIES DESCRIBED ABOVE /POSSIBLY AIDED BY WEAK
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV/ AND ALSO NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
   THE WRN PART OF THE MCD AREA. 

   18Z ABR SOUNDING DEPICTS VERY WEAK BUOYANCY AT PRESENT NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT...BUT CONTINUED HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY
   EVENTUALLY YIELD MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT STRONG SLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN 30-40
   KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   STORM STRUCTURES WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. A FEW
   SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A PRIMARY
   THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL
   EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT IS SUSTAINED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
   WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED. WW
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

   ..DEAN/DIAL.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42669692 42879747 43219836 44150099 44950134 45570160
               45840009 46299850 45979667 45519527 44509438 43899473
               43089559 42579611 42549640 42669692 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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