MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0719 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX AND SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 222...
   
   VALID 020019Z - 020145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 222 CONTINUES.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST TX IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
   REDEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 222 THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
   AND AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP AS MORE STORMS
   INITIATE TO THE EAST. IN THE CASE OF NEW INITIATION...ANOTHER WATCH
   MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF WW 222.
   
   AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS NW TX HELPING TO
   WEAKEN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS. THIS
   DECREASE IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. AS A RUC ANALYZED
   VORTICITY MAX OVER NW TX MOVES EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING
   AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD
   REOCCUR ACROSS ERN PARTS OF WW 222 OR JUST AFTER WATCH EXPIRATION.
   THIS NEW CLUSTER OF SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING IS
   SUPPORTED BY MOST SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODELS. IN THIS CASE...THE
   AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON
   REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   THREAT. VERTICAL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT
   LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A TORNADO WOULD ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE IF SUPERCELL FORMATION RE-OCCURS. IF CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE 03Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME...THEN ANOTHER
   WW WOULD PROBABLY BE NECESSARY IN AREAS ACROSS SE OK AND NORTHEAST
   TX LATE THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32519909 32490066 32950065 32970103 34280102 34330042
               34730043 34750002 34499999 34509964 34749963 34719940
               34839936 34869913 34689913 34679903 34579906 34589881
               34879880 34859812 35389808 35379713 35529714 35479645
               35329647 35299596 35039607 34689611 34719590 34599588
               34619564 34509566 34499582 34179580 34179596 33959598
               33909584 33429590 33349635 33429633 33419739 32989738
               33019907 32519909