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Mesoscale Discussion 662
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST VA/CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY/FAR NORTHEAST
   NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...

   VALID 222236Z - 230000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH 174...BUT AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY...AND
   PERHAPS INTO NORTHEAST NC /WHICH MAY WARRANT A SPATIAL EXTENSION OF
   WW 174/. SEVERE TSTM WATCH 174 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO STEADILY SPREAD
   GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY.
   THE INLAND AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
   IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM THE LIKES OF
   WAKEFIELD VA SAMPLE THE RELATIVELY STRONG QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH
   AS 45-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS AND FAST SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
   RISK. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE PERSISTENT
   RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS...BUT SOMEWHAT MARGINAL MOISTURE/HIGH
   TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH SHOULD
   TEMPER THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK.

   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37767771 38487709 39557657 39417601 38727494 37837510
               36587612 36017635 36827735 37767771 

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