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Mesoscale Discussion 663
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW AND W-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 161943Z - 162115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX. PRIMARY
   THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...WITH LESSER
   POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO EXPECTED. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED
   CU FIELD OCCURRING NEAR A DRYLINE...POSITIONED FROM JUST E OF MAF
   SWD TO NEAR 6R6. A FEW SUSTAINED TSTMS COULD EVOLVE AND MOVE NEWD
   ACROSS W-CNTRL TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE
   LIMITED BY WEAK CAPPING...AND GENERALLY WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE N AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
   NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW
   COMBINED WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY
   INCREASING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THAN AREAS TO THE N/E...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
   RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/DIAL.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29820241 31570199 32390143 32700053 32879964 32649923
               31469893 30429959 29860106 29820241 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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