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Mesoscale Discussion 664
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL OK...S-CNTRL AND SERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162004Z - 162130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LONG-LIVED TSTM CLUSTER ACROSS N-CNTRL OK IS
   ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS FAR N-CNTRL OK
   AND SERN OK. TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE
   IN TORNADO POTENTIAL...AND A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTER ACROSS FAR N-CNTRL OK AND FAR S-CNTRL KS
   APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND JUST N OF A PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...AND ADDITIONAL TSTMS CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE AIR MASS S/E OF THE BOUNDARY
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS SFC TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE
   UPPER 70S...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW ESTIMATED AT 1500-2000 J/KG. THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS A RESULT.
   WIND PROFILES FROM VNX/INX VAD DATA ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL VORTICITY
   ALONG/N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN INCREASED TORNADO
   POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE MODE REMAINS
   MESSY AND TSTMS ARE PROBABLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SO UNCERTAINTY
   STILL EXISTS...BUT WW ISSUANCE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THE NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS.

   ..ROGERS/DIAL.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   38109717 38209681 38089613 37819590 36769656 36479752
               36539818 36659835 37039804 37699747 38109717 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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