MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...AR...SWRN TN...NWRN MS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224...
   
   VALID 020645Z - 020815Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224
   CONTINUES.
   
   ATTM...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR ADDITIONAL WW ONCE
   THIS ONE EXPIRES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS IN PROJECTED PATH OF STG-SVR MCS OVER
   PORTION CENTRAL/ERN AR...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SVR
   HAIL AND ALSO THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.  GUST FRONT APPEARS
   TO BE OUTRUNNING LEADING REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT EXCEPT NEAR IMMEDIATE
   NOSE AREA OF SMALL BOW AROUND NRN LONOKE/NRN PRAIRIE COUNTIES AS OF
   630Z.  THIS INDICATES ORGANIZATION OF COMPLEX MAY DIMINISH SOON
   EXCEPT FOR BRIEF/LOCALIZED SURGING/BOWING TENDENCIES.  PRIND
   POTENTIAL FOR SVR DIMINISHES SEWD INTO MS...ALTHOUGH STRONGER CELLS
   WITHIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED WAA WING OVER NERN AR AND SWRN TN MAY POSE
   ISOLATED HAIL RISK.  ELEVATED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED
   BY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MOIST/SWLY LLJ.
   
   SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM BETWEEN DYR-MKL WSWWD
   OVER N-CENTRAL AR...LOSING IDENTITY WITHIN AND JUST N OF MCS...THEN
   EVIDENT AGAIN FROM JUST N FSM SWWD ACROSS SERN OK AND EXTREME
   N-CENTRAL TX...TO NEAR DYS. THIS FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SWD THROUGH NEXT
   FEW HOURS.  FRONT AND MCS OUTFLOW WILL COMBINE TO DEMARCATE NRN
   BOUND OF VERY MOIST/HIGH-THETAE AIR MASS -- WHERE SFC DEW POINTS
   UPPER 60S TO 70 F ARE COMMON.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN AR WILL
   REMAIN SFC-BASED OR VERY NEARLY SO...WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG
   COMMON.  HOWEVER...IN PROSPECTIVE PATH OF MCS...MLCINH WILL
   STRENGTHEN WITH EWD EXTENT TO NRN MS.  40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   MAGNITUDE SHOULD AID STORM ORGANIZATION FOR ANY TRAILING STORMS THAT
   MAY DEVELOP...ON EITHER SIDE OF COLD FRONT. HAIL WOULD BE MAIN
   CONCERN FOR POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY OR STORMS FORMING ATOP LEFTOVER
   COLD POOL FROM MCS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   34999589 35509460 35639337 35649153 35409025 35088932
               34228885 33528946 33399132 33789305 33939340 34009377
               33739384 33939443 33619448 33969522 33899545 33899587
               34169595 34159574 34509578 34509562 34629566 34619591
               34679591 34999589