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Mesoscale Discussion 664
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0225 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST KS TO FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM/TX S PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 211925Z - 212100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING STORMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO EAST-CENTRAL NM
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALL STORMS SHOULD POSE A PRIMARY RISK FOR
   LARGE HAIL...WITH A MORE INTENSE SUPERCELL OR TWO PROBABLE OVER
   SOUTHWEST KS WHERE THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY GREATER.

   DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS INCREASING ALONG/BEHIND THE
   DRYLINE WHICH WAS DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHWEST KS/EAST-CENTRAL CO
   BORDER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO FAR EASTERN NM. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
   DRYLINE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S
   SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING COMMON AT 19Z. CONTINUED CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE DRYLINE /FURTHER INTENSIFYING INTO EARLY EVENING/ SHOULD
   RESULT IN INITIAL STORMS FORMING BETWEEN 20-21Z. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED AND STRENGTHEN GREATLY TOWARDS 00Z
   ACROSS THE KS/OK PANHANDLE PORTION OF THIS REGION. THIS SHOULD
   RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT
   FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING A SUPERCELL OR TWO THAT MAY PRODUCE VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO. NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
   AXIS SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND BE LARGELY
   CONFINED TO NEAR THE DRYLINE.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38650183 39080188 39330196 39790202 39800171 39560135
               38980065 37990049 36190106 34220207 33540269 33680327
               33850345 35660295 38000198 38650183 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2016
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