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Mesoscale Discussion 664
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NY AND EASTERN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172...

   VALID 222259Z - 230000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
   DIMINISH WITHIN SEVERE TSTM WATCH 172...SUCH THAT WATCH EXPIRATION
   IS ANTICIPATED BY/AT 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAVE SHIFTED WELL SOUTHEAST
   OF THE REGION OUT OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 172. SOME LESS-VIGOROUS
   DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED AND REMAINS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE
   NORTH-SOUTH FRONTAL ZONE AND RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AXIS.
   HOWEVER...FACTORS SUCH AS SOME OUTFLOWS/CONVECTIVE
   OVERTURNING...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE
   WAKE OF AN OFFSHORE-SHIFTING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SUGGESTS ANY
   LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND OTHERWISE
   CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NO ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCES/TEMPORAL
   EXTENSIONS ARE WARRANTED.

   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   43277561 42107480 39807554 40297673 41617645 43277561 

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