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Mesoscale Discussion 665
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0600 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 222300Z - 230030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY THE DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS. THIS THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR INDICATE A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS
   ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS OF LAWRENCE AND WRN
   PENNINGTON COUNTIES AS OF 2245Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
   BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SWRN U.S. TROUGH. THE
   LOCAL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   50S IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IS
   CO-LOCATED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH AROUND 30 KT
   OF DEEP-LAYER WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME MIDLEVEL
   UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THIS
   EVENING. THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED OWING TO THE LOCAL
   TERRAIN FORCING AND LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT.

   ..MEAD.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44150403 44440404 44610394 44650348 44510303 44200277
               43910278 43690310 43600346 43690372 43950402 44150403 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2014
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