MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 020758Z - 021030Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EACH IS FCST TO BECOME GREATER GRADUALLY
   ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE FROM MOST
   INTENSE/PERSISTENT CELLS.  POTENTIAL FOR WW APPEARS SMALL ATTM GIVEN
   VERY SPREAD-OUT/DIFFUSE AND MARGINAL APPEARANCE OF HAIL RISK...BUT
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT CATEGORICALLY.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY COLD FRONT FROM FSM AREA SWWD ACROSS
   BRYAN COUNTY OK NEAR DUA...TO COOKE COUNTY TX...TO BETWEEN ABI-SJT. 
   FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SWD AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH REMAINDER
   PRE-DAWN HOURS.  ABOVE SFC...STREAMLINE ANALYSIS OF VWP/PROFILER
   WINDS COMBINED WITH MODEL THERMAL ANALYSES INDICATE 850 MB
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONT FROM SWRN MO SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL OK TO
   VICINITY LBB.  INSTEAD OF CONCENTRATED/INTENSE LLJ ACROSS THIS
   REGION...STRONG LLJ OVER S-CENTRAL TX BRANCHES OFF INTO SEVERAL
   RATHER INDISTINCT PLUMES OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
   AMIDST 25-40 KT 850 MB FLOW.  RELATED BROAD SHEET OF VERY MOIST LOW
   LEVEL AIR IS BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY AND GRADUALLY TO LFC ATOP
   GENTLE SLOPE OF SHALLOW FRONTAL CURRENT.  THIS MODE OF ASCENT IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO SPECKLED...SLOW AND SEEMINGLY RANDOM NATURE OF EARLY
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT N OF SFC FRONT...GENERALLY INVOF 850 MB
   BOUNDARY WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ARE
   ROOTED.  ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGES FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER SWRN OK
   TO 1000 J/KG JUST S OF KS BORDER AND IN ERN TX PANHANDLE...WITH ZONE
   OF 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER NWRN THROUGH CENTRAL OK.  THESE
   VALUES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT LEAST...UNTIL
   STRONGER MID-UPPER ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AZ
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AREA AND LOW-MIDLEVEL MASS FIELDS
   READJUST.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   35819510 35149636 34499782 34429937 34620015 35530098
               36489956 36879758 36729510 35819510