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Mesoscale Discussion 665
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 211956Z - 212115Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR AS
   A FEW STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR WEST TX. THE SPATIAL
   EXTENT OF THE RISK RENDERS UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER A WW ISSUANCE WILL
   BE NECESSARY.

   DISCUSSION...TOWERING CU APPEARING TO BE GROWING INTO A COUPLE OF
   INCIPIENT CBS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER JEFF DAVIS COUNTY.
   WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION...THE
   AIR MASS IS LIKELY MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   SOUTHEASTERLIES BENEATH MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES MAY
   FOSTER A SUPERCELL FORMING BY ABOUT 22Z. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
   STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. PRESENCE OF DOWNSTREAM
   MLCIN SUGGEST THE SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO OVER THE HIGH
   TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 05/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31080405 31930372 31940330 31250299 29980296 29390330
               29310391 29600433 30270428 31080405 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2016
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