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Mesoscale Discussion 665
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...ERN NEB...WRN IA...NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162034Z - 162200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...EVOLUTION OF SEVERE RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM IS
   UNCERTAIN...BUT AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. WW ISSUANCE MAY EVENTUALLY BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...A WEAK BOWING SEGMENT HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY TO THE NW
   OF EMP...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW GENERATED FROM LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED MCS THAT IS ONGOING ACROSS S-CNTRL KS. ATTEMPTS AT TSTM
   INITIATION ARE ALSO UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN NEB INTO NERN KS...ALONG A
   WEAK CONFLUENCE AXIS. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS
   THE AREA...18Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND TOP INDICATE THE QUALITY OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT THAT GREAT...WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 9
   AND 12 G/KG NOTED...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN STORM
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME...AS LOW AND MIDLEVEL
   FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
   AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. 

   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS ERN NEB INTO FAR
   NERN KS...WHERE MORE FAVORABLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE E
   OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS. IN ADDITION...ONE OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS
   MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED DAMAGING
   WIND RISK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS AREA
   REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN...WITH WW ISSUANCE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON
   SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   ..DEAN/DIAL.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38329674 39369656 40299666 41459679 41959689 42559693
               42869627 42559557 41409512 40389488 39459480 38769474
               38419481 38179561 38229607 38329674 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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