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Mesoscale Discussion 666
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0647 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL/KY TO
   NORTHERN/EASTERN TN AND EXTREME WESTERN VA/NORTH GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176...

   VALID 222347Z - 230115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
   ACROSS FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST TN WITHIN SEVERE TSTM WATCH 176...WHICH
   CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z.

   DISCUSSION...CLOSELY SPACED/SEMI-DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST TN AS OF
   2340Z. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE
   CONTINUES TO FEED THE STORMS FROM THE WEST...WHILE A RIBBON OF
   MODERATELY-STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO EXTEND
   ACROSS MUCH OF KY AND EASTERN/FAR NORTHERN TN. THE AFOREMENTIONED
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE
   RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE TN/VA BORDER
   VICINITY...ALTHOUGH NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE
   EAST-SOUTHEAST.

   MEANWHILE...THE PROSPECTS FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE APPEARS LIMITED
   NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN TN/WESTERN KY/FAR SOUTHEAST MO IN
   VICINITY OF A OUTFLOW AND/OR THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE
   AIR MASS REMAINS WARM/MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH SOME TOWERING CU
   HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   OCCURRED EARLIER NORTHWEST OF THE HOPKINSVILLE KY
   VICINITY...MEANINGFUL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY
   IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE AND PROBABLE WEAK
   SUBSIDENCE/MID-LEVEL CAPPING.

   ..GUYER.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36988931 37078788 36688587 36268391 36148297 35278370
               34798462 36008617 36438816 36988931 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2014
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