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Mesoscale Discussion 667
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0667
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL CO INTO WRN KS AND FAR SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 222350Z - 230045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST
   INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS FAR E-CNTRL CO INTO WRN KS AND FAR SWRN
   NEB WITH NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED E OF WW 175 TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
   THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY
   DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE DENVER METRO AREA...WITH AN
   ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING SEWD AND THEN SWD ACROSS FAR ERN
   CO. MORE RECENT/VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HR
   W OF ITR...INVOF A RELATIVE MOIST TONGUE OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   FIELDS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE
   PRESENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. WHILE INSTABILITY
   IS LIKELY TO DECREASE INTO THE EVENING HRS WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
   HEATING...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
   FOR CONTINUED EWD PROPAGATION. GLD VWP DATA ALSO SHOWS AN
   APPROXIMATELY 1 KM AGL DEEP LAYER OF E-ESELY 20 KT FLOW SITUATED
   ACROSS THIS AREA...SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR
   CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED E OF WW 175 INTO
   PORTIONS OF WRN KS.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/22/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   40300086 39190027 37880026 37320080 37030139 37010171
               37380207 38130238 39430269 39940261 40260221 40300086 

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Page last modified: May 23, 2014
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