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Mesoscale Discussion 668
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0546 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS/WRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 162246Z - 162345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO IS INCREASING. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A BOWING LINE SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS
   OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY FURTHER SW HAS RECENTLY RE-INTENSIFIED ACROSS WRN
   KS. THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS BOW IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH
   MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG PER THE 22Z RAP MESOANALYSIS.
   MODIFYING THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA KS WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
   SUPPORTS THIS ESTIMATE. BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER AREA SFC
   OBSERVATIONS AND KEAX/KTOP VWP WILL SUPPORT A ISOLATED TORNADO
   THREAT WITH BOTH THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT AND ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT
   FORM AHEAD OF OR TO THE SW THE BOW. A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND
   FIELD WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION
   THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE
   HAIL THREAT. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS ...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   LIKELY.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/16/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37399600 37489668 38499664 39849612 39999470 39259385
               38089424 37399600 

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Page last modified: May 16, 2015
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