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Mesoscale Discussion 668
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...

   VALID 212234Z - 220030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 187 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT IS LIKELY INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND
   FAR EASTERN CO...GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

   DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE AND MESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATED A SURFACE
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST CO /WELD COUNTY/ TO NORTHWEST KS
   /SHERMAN COUNTY...JUST WEST OF GLD/...AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO
   FINNEY AND SEWARD COUNTIES...JUST WEST OF GCK AND JUST EAST OF
   LBL...RESPECTIVELY.  THE ENVIRONMENT IN VICINITY AND WEST OF THIS
   BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM
   1500-3000 J/KG.  MEANWHILE...VWP AT GLD INDICATED SOME BACKING AND
   STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...WITH SPEEDS UP
   TO 40 KT.  THIS CHANGE IN THE WINDS HAS RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING OF
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /SURFACE TO 1-KM SHEAR 25-30 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF 35-40 KT.  IN ADDITION...0-1-KM SRH IS NEAR 300 M2/S2.
   STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY /PRIMARILY OVER
   EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS AND TRACK TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO
   THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE
   GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADO
   DEVELOPMENT.

   THE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STABLE
   AND LESS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAIN STORM INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION FOR
   ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THIS REGIME.

   ..PETERS.. 05/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   40330149 39400017 37030010 36970302 37520304 37710280
               38270277 38320342 38480339 38580308 39530316 39560283
               40390272 40330149 

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Page last modified: May 22, 2016
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